With four days until Election Day, statistician Nate Silver said his latest model provides a “good update” for Vice President Kamala Harris in the extraordinarily tight presidential election, even as former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner.

Silver, the forecaster who runs the Silver Bulletin, released the first model series of November on Friday and found Harris with growing support in Michigan and Wisconsin, two crucial swing states.

Harris’ clearest path to victory would be to retain the three “Blue Wall” battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Barring shocking results elsewhere, those 44 Electoral College votes would put the Democratic candidate at exactly 270, if she also wins the other 226 Electoral College votes she is projected to win and 270 to win, according to The Cook Political Report.

Trump has campaigned hard in the three states, knowing he likely needs to win at least one of them to secure the election. Polls have been very tight in all three states, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll currently showing Harris less than a point ahead of Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.4 points – after Harris previously led him in the state .

Since the 1988 election, the three states have consistently gone to the same candidate rather than being divided. The winner of these states often wins the presidency, with the exception of Democratic candidate Al Gore, who won all three elections but lost the 2000 presidential election to President George W. Bush. Trump previously won all three states in 2016, while President Biden reversed them in 2020.

Silver’s latest model shows Harris gaining 0.4 points in Michigan over last week’s model, putting her 1.2 percentage points ahead of Trump, 48.4 percent to Trump’s 47.2 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris gained 0.2 points from last week, while in the state she was 48.6 percent higher than Trump’s 47.8 percent.

Trump remains ahead in the model in Pennsylvania, 48.4 percent to Harris’ 47.8 percent. According to the Silver Bulletin forecast, Pennsylvania will turn Republican by 0.7 points.

The latest Silver Bulletin forecast shows that Trump expected to win the election, 53.8 percent to Harris’ 48.8 percent. According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, there is a 51 percent chance that Trump will win the election, compared to Harris’ 48 percent.

Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump’s campaign via email on Friday for comment.

In a post on The polls are not included in the latest model.

In the post he wrote: “Reassuring polling for Harris in that the race will likely remain a close race.”

The latest Marist polls show Harris leading by three points in Michigan, and two points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Her lead in all three states is within the polls’ margin of error.

In Michigan, 1,356 registered voters were surveyed between Oct. 27 and 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Similarly, the Wisconsin poll surveyed 1,444 registered voters between the same dates, with the same margin of error. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 1,558 registered voters on the same dates, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Correction 11/24/24, 1:31 PM ET: This article has been corrected to reflect that the Marist polls were not included in the model.