The second edition of the seasonal tournament, known as the Emirates NBA Cup, starts on Tuesday. All 30 teams will play four group stage matches over the coming weeks for a chance to reach the knockout rounds and ultimately the championship match on December 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Thanks to the efforts of LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers won the first NBA Cup, but their first-round exit in the 2024 playoffs proved that winning a single-elimination tournament in December is very different from the subsequent success after the season.

Conversely, last year’s runner-up Indiana Pacers used their unexpected NBA Cup success as a springboard to a long playoff run, reaching the Eastern Conference finals before falling to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.

Let’s take a look at which teams have the best chance to follow in the footsteps of the Lakers and Pacers using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which generates the projected odds of advancing as group winners. We’ll also evaluate which teams are best positioned to potentially claim the wild card spot in each conference heading into Las Vegas.

Go to a group:
East Group A (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)
East Group B (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)
Eastern Group C (ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, WAS)
Western Group A (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)
West Group B (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)
West Group C (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)

Eastern group A

Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34.6%)

Contenders: New York Knicks (23.7%), Orlando Magic (19%)

lurking: Brooklyn Nets (11.9%), Charlotte Hornets (10.8%)

Having a team that started 1-6 as favorites to win their bracket is a great example of how the NBA Cup can differ from the regular season. The 76ers will get former MVP Joel Embiid back from his extended absence — first due to recovery from injury, then a three-game suspension for pushing a reporter — just in time to debut in Tuesday’s Group A opener against the Knicks.

And because NBA Cup games are never the second night of consecutive sets, Embiid should be available for all games, even if All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey misses extended periods of time with a hamstring injury.

The Magic have won back-to-back games after dropping five straight games without All-Star Paolo Banchero, whose oblique injury will surely sideline him for group play, but the winner will be Philadelphia, which hosts New York on Tuesday. should have the inside track to win Group A. .

Still, this is a group that could prove wide open due to injuries. BPI simulations show all five teams (the Nets and Hornets rounding out Group A) winning at least 10% of the time, which is by far the most competitive group from top to bottom.

Eastern group B

Group favorite: Miami Heat (38.4%)

Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (26.9%), Indiana Pacers (20%)

Lurking: Detroit Pistons (8.3%), Toronto Raptors (6.3%)

While not as competitive from top to bottom as Group A, Group B of the East is the most open at the top. Currently, the Heat alone are expected to win 30% of BPI simulations. That’s a testament to the slow start for the Bucks, who looked like the top team in the bracket entering the season before their early-season struggles left them stuck at the bottom of the East.

Milwaukee could get a boost with Khris Middleton possibly returning from ankle surgery during group play. If Jimmy Butler can return soon after his ankle injury, Miami will remain the favorites in Group B, with the best points differential of these teams so far this season.

Indiana has a better chance of repeating last year’s NBA Cup run after starting .500 this season.

Eastern group C

Favorite: Boston Celtics (50.8%)

Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers (40.7%)

lurking: Chicago Bulls (4%), Atlanta Hawks (3.7%), Washington Wizards (0.8%)

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has said that winning the NBA Cup is a good goal for the Cavaliers, the NBA’s last remaining undefeated team. There is only one big challenge for Cleveland: joining the Celtics in by far the most top-heavy group. Even worse, that game will be played next Tuesday in Boston, a repeat of last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

Although the Celtics are the comfortable BPI favorite, both top teams are ahead in about 70% of simulations due to the high probability of this group yielding the East’s wild card.

For tiebreaker purposes, the Cavaliers will want to increase the score as much as possible in their wins. Last year, teams didn’t understand the incentive to maximize points difference until the end of group play, resulting in lopsided blowouts on the final night. This time around, expect potential wildcards to soar from the get-go.

Cleveland opens at home against the Bulls and could provide the largest margin for any team that hosts the rebuilding Wizards in the finals.

West group A

Group Favorites: Minnesota Timberwolves (31.2%)

Contenders: Houston Rockets (26.4%), Sacramento Kings (20.9%), LA Clippers (15.4%)

lurking: Portland Trailblazers (5.2%)

With their youth, depth and fast start, the Rockets seem like exactly the kind of team that could make a surprise run in the NBA Cup.

Standing in their way are the Timberwolves (who are still finding their feet after acquiring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the preseason), the Clippers and the Kings.

The challenge for the Rockets is that their two toughest group matches will be played on the road. The same goes for the Clippers, although they remain undefeated thus far. Conversely, that’s an advantage for Sacramento, which gets to host both of the other top contenders at the Golden 1 Center, including the Rockets in what could be a crucial finale.

Western Group B

Group Favorites: Oklahoma City Thunder (43.2%)

Contenders: Phoenix Suns (26.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (20.1%)

lurking: San Antonio Spurs (5.5%), Utah Jazz (4.8%)

Going into their Sunday game against Golden State, the Thunder were expected to reach the quarterfinals of the season tournament in nearly 90% of simulations.

Those chances took a big dive after star center Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture during the game. He will be out for at least eight to 10 weeks, which will likely rule him out for the duration of the tournament.

A number of factors still favor the Thunder in winning a bracket that includes the high-scoring Suns and the defending champion Lakers. First, the Thunder host the Suns — who will be without Kevin Durant for at least two weeks due to a calf injury — on Friday in a key game in this bracket.

The group also has the three of the five teams in the West with a negative point differential (Lakers, Spurs and the Jazz) – meaning this group will most likely produce the conference wild card.

As long as the Durant-less Suns can keep things close in Oklahoma City, they have an excellent chance of advancing even if they lose.

The Lakers’ hopes of defending their tournament title are complicated by playing in Phoenix, and it remains to be seen whether the league’s scoring leader, Anthony Davis, will be available this week after suffering an eye injury in Sunday’s win on Toronto.

West Group C

Group Favorites: Golden State Warriors (33.6%)

Contenders: Denver Nuggets (26.1%), Dallas Mavericks (24.1%)

lurking: Memphis Grizzlies (13.8%) New Orleans Pelicans (2.5%)

Three of the West’s top six teams by points difference are in this group, making it the NBA Cup’s toughest – and one that also has many injured stars. Despite the weakened Pelicans seeing Zion Williamson and several other key players hampered by injuries, it could be a challenge for the second-place team to claim a wild-card spot based on its schedule.

Golden State’s fast start has positioned the Warriors as the favorite. They also host two of the three other top teams in Group C, although they travel to Denver on the final night of play.

The Nuggets also play two of their three toughest games at home, and there’s an outside chance they could get Aaron Gordon back from a calf injury by the time they host Golden State in the finals.

The schedule is tougher for both Dallas and the Memphis Grizzlies (who are without guard Ja Morant due to a hip injury), although the Mavericks can win anywhere. That includes perhaps the most important game of the NBA Cup group stage: Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay on Tuesday night.