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NBC Poll Predicts Shock for Kamala Harris; figures indicate a drop in popularity after a 5-point drop in lead
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NBC Poll Predicts Shock for Kamala Harris; figures indicate a drop in popularity after a 5-point drop in lead

The latest NBC News poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris’ popularity has dropped significantly. According to the October poll, she and former President Donald Trump are locked in a close race three weeks before Election Day. After her summer boost, shortly after she took over the Democratic campaign, Harris’ favorability has fallen by a huge margin compared to the month before.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at East Carolina University, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Greenville, N.C. (AP Photo/David Yeazell)(AP)
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at East Carolina University, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Greenville, N.C. (AP Photo/David Yeazell)(AP)

“As summer turns to fall, all signs of momentum for Kamala Harris are gone,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The results show a dramatic shift: In September, Harris had a five-point lead over Trump, but that advantage has evaporated, leaving the two candidates tied for 48% of registered voters each.

October NBC Poll: Kamala Harris loses a 5-point lead and ties with Trump on a 48% popularity chart.
October NBC Poll: Kamala Harris loses a 5-point lead and ties with Trump on a 48% popularity chart.

NBC Poll: Change in Voter Sentiment

The poll signals a shift in voter sentiment, with growing concerns that Harris represents continuity with President Joe Biden rather than change. This perception, combined with a more favorable view of Trump’s previous term among voters, has helped Trump close the gap.

McInturff notes that Harris faces “headwinds” as voters see her as a candidate for another term of the incumbent party, while Trump benefits from a positive reassessment of his past presidency.

Additionally, Harris’ approval rating has taken a hit, dropping to 43% positive and 49% negative, a net rating of -6. This is a significant shift from last month’s poll, where her positive rating was 48% versus 45% negative, giving her a net rating of +3 at the time. The decline in popularity comes mainly from independent voters and younger voters – key demographics from which Harris must maintain support.

The poll also points to a deep gender gap between the candidates. While Harris maintains a 14-point lead among women, Trump has a 16-point lead among men. Both candidates face challenges in gaining support from independent voters, with many still undecided or unwilling to support either candidate.

With the race tightening, the coming weeks will be crucial for Harris to reverse her declining popularity and shore up support, especially among key voter groups. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to use his regained momentum to tip the balance in his favor.