Nevada political analyst and columnist Jon Ralston predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win the swing state on Tuesday thanks to independent voters.

In a blog post on Monday, Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent who is known for his predictions, said he expects Harris to defeat former President Donald Trump 48.5 to 48.2 percent, with 3.3 percent of the vote going to other candidates.

Ralston wrote in his prediction that the “key to this election has always been which side non-major party voters break as they have become the plurality in the state.”

“They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate and if they move enough toward Harris, she will win Nevada,” Ralston wrote, adding, “I think so.”

Ralston acknowledged in his prediction that Republican voters turned out in unprecedented numbers during Nevada’s early voting. More than 37,000 more Republicans showed up for the second week of early voting than Democrats, which ran between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s office.

But as Ralston wrote, there are “many non-partisan closet Democrats who have been deliberately registered as non-partisan by Democrat-oriented groups.”

“The machine knows who they are and will let them vote,” he added. “It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover voting that this issue will also cause.”

According to 538, Nevada is considered a tie between Harris and Trump as of Monday, with the former president leading by an average of just 0.3 points in statewide polls. Trump lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020, with President Joe Biden winning the state and its six electoral votes by a margin of 2.4 points compared to Trump four years ago.

Trump is up 1 point on average in Nevada, according to RealClearPolling tracking. However, the swing state is considered a “toss-up” by the RCP election forecasts.

This is evident from a poll published on Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College, which 538 considers the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election, Harris was up by 3 points in Nevada, leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent among 1,010 likely voters.

The same results showed Harris with a 22-point lead among likely female voters in the state (59 percent to 37 percent), while Trump was ahead among male voters (55 percent to 39 percent). More than half (51 percent) of likely Nevada voters surveyed by the Times said they plan to endorse Harris on Tuesday. By comparison, 43 percent of independents in the state plan to support Trump.

In the latest poll from Emerson College and The hill Published Monday, Harris and Trump each turned out to be 48 percent right, based on responses from likely 840 voters in Nevada. However, that poll showed Trump leading among independents — while 35 percent of unregistered voters said they planned to support Harris, 38.7 percent said they planned to vote for the former president.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

Update 11/24/24, 6:08 PM ET: This story has been updated with additional information and background.