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Nevada vs. San Jose State, Arkansas State vs. South Alabama picks: CFB odds, predictions
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Nevada vs. San Jose State, Arkansas State vs. South Alabama picks: CFB odds, predictions

With salary matches largely lagging behind Group of Five teams, it’s time to identify a few schools that fly under the national radar in college football.

This week, I turn my attention to star pass rushers ready to tear up the Mountain West and Sun Belt conferences.

Nevada at San Jose State (7:30 p.m. ET, truTV/Max)

Non-public teams have a better chance of finishing a season as a betting fan, compared to, say, an Alabama or Notre Dame.

You don’t pay a premium for the helmet, so to speak, when you support a team like San Jose State.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS this season and cover easily by an average margin of 10.8 points per game.

So why are sportsbooks still putting up generous numbers when SJSU plays?

Well, there was reasonable skepticism surrounding the SJSU program just a month ago.

Brent Brennan was one of the last coaches to land a big job this offseason, leaving SJSU in the lurch late in the process.

AD Jeff Konya turned to Ken Niumatalolo, a proven winner at the Naval Academy (109 wins, 10 bowl bids).

But a big question remained: What kind of offense would the option-oriented Niumatalolo implement in the Bay Area?

He quickly addressed those concerns by hiring Craig Stutzmann as his coordinator.

Stutzmann’s ‘Spread n’ Shred’ attack was a revelation.

Nick Nash, SJSU’s favorite receiver, leads the nation in receptions and receiving touchdowns.

And you’d never know Niumatalolo spent 20 years coaching triple-option quarterbacks in Annapolis by watching Emmett Brown run it.

The undersized sophomore is thriving, averaging over 320 passing yards per game and sporting an excellent 13-4 touchdown to interception ratio.

This could be the last week to play the Spartans before the secret about this MWC contender gets out.

Nevada will put up a good fight, but Brendon Lewis will likely wilt in a shootout when facing SJSU’s pressure defense.

The Spartans rank 30th in both pass rushing and defensive destruction.

I expect a few costly turnovers from Lewis in a comfortable victory for the Spartans.

Recommendation: San Jose State -6.5 (-115, FanDuel).


Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis (2) throws during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis throws a pass during Nevada’s 27-0 loss to Minnesota on September 14, 2024. Matt Krohn-Imagn images

Arkansas State at South Alabama (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

This game features two up-tempo offenses with dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks facing defenses ranked in the bottom 20 of the FBS.

Casual observers may see two inconsistent violations, but there are simple explanations for this.

In the case of Arkansas State, it has fielded two elite Power Four defensive lines in the last two weeks (Michigan, Iowa State).

South Alabama also played on the road at Death Valley last week and was manhandled by LSU.

Additionally, USA played a game earlier this season with star quarterback Gio Lopez sidelined with turf toe.


Betting on college football?


When Lopez and Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor operate against the lousy G5 defense, they fill up the stat sheet.

In games against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, Raynor performed like an all-SBC quarterback, totaling 694 yards and five touchdowns.

With the exception of the LSU game, Lopez has scored three or more touchdowns in each of his starts this season, helping South Alabama to a scoring average of 57.6 points per game over those three contests.

He is flanked in the backfield by Fluff Bothwell, one of the best-kept secrets in college football.

The breakout freshman is averaging more than 8 yards per carry and will face a lifeless ASU defense that ranks 130th in tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.

Recommendation: More than 61 points total (-110, Caesars).


Why trust New York Post betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a keen focus on college sports. His betting advice often focuses on situational locations, including travel, rest and elevation changes.