Liz Loza and I got into the Halloween spirit last week with our props and delivered more treats than tricks. We nailed five of our six props, with Davante Adams being the lone standout among the group.

I have now learned what many New York Jets fans have known since birth: never trust the Jets. I’ve learned my lesson and will stay away for the rest of the season.

Despite the Jets props, Liz and I are going to do our best to recreate our Week 8 heater as we get ready to give thanks for all the gambling goodies that are here on our doorstep in Week 9.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 9 props that pop! — Daniel Dopp

All odds as of publication time. Visit ESPN BET for the latest odds.

Quarterback props

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Where does Baker Mayfield rank in fantasy after a great Week 8?

Liz Loza shares where she would rank Baker Mayfield among fantasy quarterbacks in Week 9 vs. the Chiefs.

Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 pass attempts (-120), OVER 224.5 passing yards (-155)

Loza: Opposing offenses throw the Bucs at a brutal pace of 37 pass attempts per game (the second most in the NFL). It’s been a good strategy, as Tampa Bay’s secondary has given up the third-most passing yards in the league (2,191). As a result, Mayfield has been forced to broadcast it and is averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game (QB2).

There was significant buzz that Mayfield’s numbers would drop with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin absent from the lineup in Week 8. While the Bucs ultimately fell to the Atlanta Falcons, Mayfield completed 37 of 50 pass attempts for 330 yards and three scores on Sunday. It was Mayfield’s third straight game with more than 300 passing yards.

In this go-round, he will face a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is considerably stingier against the run than against the pass. Despite a tendency to blitz, Kansas City has registered a whopping 15 sacks in 2024 (tied for seventh-most). As 8.5-point road underdogs, Mayfield and the Bucs will have to keep the ball in the air to stay competitive. . As such, I will be taking the baton from his passing props in prime time.

Running back props

David Montgomery anytime TD (-115)

Dopp: Let’s update last week’s prop with some new numbers for this Week 9 matchup against the Green Bay Packers. First off, it looks like there could be some weather in this match, and if it rains, we’ll usually have a limited passing attack, which would lead to more opportunities for Knuckles to do what he does best. Second, after scoring a TD last week, Monty has now scored in six of seven games and is third among RBs with seven rushing TDs. He also dominates at the goal line, with 10 rush attempts resulting in five touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. His ten attempts rank fourth behind Derrick Henry (12), Jonathan Taylor (11) and Kyren Williams (11). He’s locked in as one of the key goal line defenders running behind this robust Detroit Lions offensive line.

From a defensive perspective, the Packers have given up six touchdowns to RBs this year, including one against the aforementioned Williams in Week 5. They’ve been pretty stiff against the run, but tough defenses haven’t slowed Detroit down one bit, with the Lions scoring 42, respectively 47, 31 and 52 points in their past four games. With that kind of offensive firepower, you can expect Monty to get at least a few hits on the goal line.

De’Von Achane OVER 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)

Dopp: The splits with and without Tua Tagovailoa as his starting quarterback are pretty wild. In four games without Tua as a starter, Achane has 189 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns. In his three games with Tua, Achane has 412 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Like I said, pretty wild.

Achane’s efficiency comes from the fact that defenses must respect the passing game, with players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field and keeping the safeties honest rather than crawling to the line and stacking the box. In fact, Achane has rushed for at least 100 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in every game Tua has started this year. We think that’s great, considering we have Tua back under center here in Week 9.

But that’s not the only thing we love, because we also love this matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed the sixth-most yards per rush attempt this season (4.8) and have four different running backs achieve this goal this year have achieved. , with three of those backs over 165 yards from scrimmage. That’s not a typo. The Bills allowed Derrick Henry (209 yards), Breece Hall (169 yards) and Achane (165 total yards in Week 2) to dominate them in more ways than one this year. And while close doesn’t count in sports betting, Dare Ogunbowale, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Conner have all been within 6 yards of this line this season.

None of these backs have the home run ability that Achane has to break down a long offense, and that’s part of what we’re hoping for: elite rushing efficiency and passing game usage, something that Achane has had when Tua plays.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-145), all time TD (+115)

Loza: When the Patriots manage to remain competitive, Stevenson can produce, as evidenced by his two-touchdown effort against the Jets in Week 8. The 26-year-old has admittedly been inefficient, averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry in back-to-back games. However, when the game script leans in its favor, volume has compensated for the sins of wasted steps. The Patriots enter the week as 3.5-point underdogs in Tennessee, suggesting a fairly close matchup against a 1-6 team that has lost three straight.

Additionally, the Titans traded away one of the team’s most impactful defensive players, sending Ernest Jones to Seattle for Jerome Baker last week. With Jones out of the lineup, Tennessee was overwhelmed by Detroit’s rushing attack, giving up 164 rushing yards and nearly 7.0 YPC. Assuming Stevenson registers 14 carries (he’s averaging 14.9 carries and 4.1 YPC on the season), he’ll end up with nearly 60 rushing yards in an exploitable matchup.

Alvin Kamara OVER 100 rushing + receiving yards and all time TD (+105)

Dopp: Kamara will take on the Carolina Panthers this week.

I tried to end my analysis with this, but my editors assured me that I needed to be a little more thorough. I’m not sure why though. If you’ve watched football, listened to football, or even thought about football a little, you’ve learned that the Panthers’ defense isn’t very good. Frankly, it’s worse than not very good.

Five different running backs top this line, including Kamara this season. And while it doesn’t count from our perspective, the Panthers also gave up 170 scrimmage yards to the combination of Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Why do I mention that? Because that’s a backfield that splits touches, while the Saints rely ONLY on Kamara to move the ball. Kamara has 161 touches, while the next RB has 36 total touches. Obviously this is a one-back room, so Kamara should be in line to receive plenty of touches, with the added excitement that Derek Carr is likely back at center for the New Orleans Saints.

Alvin should rack up the yards in spades and also find pay dirt, given the Panthers’ inability to stop RBs. So far this year, Carolina has allowed 15 TDs at the running back position, more than any other team in the NFL.

Wide receiver prop

Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

Loza: It’s been a season of ups and downs for Sutton. However, he is currently on the rise. Bo Nix’s play has improved and the matchups have been positive for the veteran wideout. Sutton has at least 50 yards receiving in four of his past six games and is coming off his first 100-yard attempt in which he converted a whopping eight of 11 looks.

I wouldn’t bet on Sutton posting triple-digit yardage again this Sunday, but with the Denver Broncos chasing points in Baltimore (-9.5), it’s fair to expect a host of opportunities for Denver’s No. 1 WR . Sutton should convert those shots as well, as the Ravens are allowing a 67.2% completion percentage. Additionally, Baltimore’s secondary has given up the most receiving yards in the league, a whopping 2,493 (an average of 311 per game).

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