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NOAA map shows what to expect in Oklahoma
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NOAA map shows what to expect in Oklahoma

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oklahoma will have a slightly warmer winter than in recent years. The Climate Prediction Center has released its winter outlook for January, February and March 2025.

The annual U.S. winter outlook report predicts that strong La Niña conditions are expected across the country. The US has a 74% chance of La Niña conditions, while there is a 40% chance of this being a moderate event.

According to the National Weather Service, La Niña events are the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This period usually happens every 3 to 5 years, but can also occur occasionally. Last year, the US experienced El Niño conditions, which are the opposite of La Niña, meaning the ocean is warming to above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

During La Niña events, the northern part of the United States typically experiences colder and stormier winter conditions, while the south is warmer and less stormy.

What are the NOAA forecasts for Oklahoma this winter?

Normal winter precipitation levels have been established east of Oklahoma City, so cities like Tulsa and McAlester are set for a typical winter. However, central cities like Sieling, Watonga, Lawton and OKC have a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation.

Moving further west into the Panhandle, Elk City and Hobart will see a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation during the winter months.

As for temperatures, Guymon to Grove and as far south as Stillwater will see standard winter temperatures. But as you get south of OKC and Tulsa, temperatures are only forecast to rise, with a 33-40% chance of warmer temperatures throughout the season.