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    • NOAA’s 2024 winter forecast is here: Expect the return of La Niña
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    NOAA’s 2024 winter forecast is here: Expect the return of La Niña

    Vaseline Posted on

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    After the warmest winter on record last year, the coming winter could be another mild one for much of the country, federal forecasters announced Thursday.

    Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that most of the southern U.S. and the East Coast should see warmer-than-average temperatures this winter. Additionally, most of the southern half of the US – all the way from Southern California to the Carolinas – should see less rain and snow than normal, which could be a concern due to the drought.

    “This winter, an emerging La Niña is expected to impact upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation forecasts,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Climate Prediction Center’s Operational Prediction Branch, said in a statement.

    The center’s forecast covers the months of December, January and February, also known as meteorological winter.

    Mild winter likely in the south and east

    Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the southern U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, the East Coast, New England and northern Alaska, according to the forecast released Thursday. These opportunities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas, NOAA said.

    Gottschalck said at a news conference Thursday that invasions from the feared polar vortex are less likely than normal this winter.

    Overall, below-average temperatures are forecast this winter in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains and southern Alaska.

    Where is a wet winter most likely?

    Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and across the northern part of the U.S., NOAA said. These opportunities are strongest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

    Conversely, drier than average conditions are most likely to occur in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico.

    Weak La Niña expected

    The long-promised La Niña climate pattern has not yet formed, but it is still expected to do so within about a month.

    Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said last week that there is a 60% chance that La Niña conditions will occur in late November. And once formed, it is expected to last until January-March 2025.

    Drought is a real concern

    Drought conditions are likely to develop or worsen in parts of the Southwest and Gulf Coast, according to the forecast.

    “Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought across the country, more than a quarter of the landmass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, drought operations lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. “And the outlook for winter precipitation does not bode well for widespread relief.”

    What about blizzards and blizzards?

    The forecast released Thursday predicts only where above or below normal temperatures and above or below normal precipitation are most likely.

    This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall in the form of rain, snow or ice; only that, on the whole, it is more or less probable. Snow forecasts depend on the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center said.

    However, Gottschalck said the storm track for nor’easters along the East Coast could favor milder air for major cities in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which could mean more rain than snow there. But he warned that snowstorms are still possible, depending on the specific weather conditions at the time.

    Other patterns do not occur

    Climate patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation – which can cause intensely cold temperatures in the central and eastern US – are not currently included in this official forecast because they cannot be predicted more than one or two weeks in advance.

    Other large-scale climate patterns in the atmosphere that can influence winter weather include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can influence the number of heavy rain events along the West Coast. It could also contribute to other extreme events in the U.S., including arctic air outbreaks during the winter months in the central and eastern parts of the country, the Climate Prediction Center says.

    The forecast also does not take into account Siberian snow cover, which other forecasters use as a basis for their winter weather forecasts.

    El Niño dominated last winter

    A strong El Niño dominated the winter of 2023-2024. Due to El Niño, the 2023-2024 winter season is the warmest on record for the contiguous US. Eight states in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each had their warmest winter on record, NOAA said.

    This story has been updated to add a video.

    Vaseline
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