November 13, 2024

Wednesday morning report

We have a cold start to a cold day that will bring us sunshine and dry weather again. We desperately need rain, and another round is coming. This could put us between 1/2 and 1 inch off much of the region later tomorrow.

The other story is the ongoing tropical season. Another storm is expected to form in the Caribbean this weekend. Currently identified Invest 99L, the next tropical storm name is Sara. It is forecast to become a hurricane and could hit Florida next week. Some of that moisture can also benefit us later.

Temperatures at 6am

Very fresh start to the day.

Morning surface weather

With clear skies and little wind, high pressure is in control. The core of the cold air comes in.

The next storm system is developing in the Central Plains and will arrive in the eastern US tomorrow.

Afternoon temperatures

Despite the sunshine, the core of cool air will settle.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY Nov 13

Sunrise at 6:48 am

Sunset at 4:53 PM

Normal low in Baltimore: 37ºC

Record temperature of 22ºC in 1911; 2019

Normal high in Baltimore: 59ºC

Record temperature of 77ºC 1955

Drought update in Baltimore

Precipitation DOWN -6.94” since September 1st

This almost matches our deficit from just before our recent rainfall.

Yes, we can dry out quickly and statewide burn bans remain in effect.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14

COLD DAY: Increasing cloudiness and rain in the afternoon across metropolitan areas.

Morning lows

Afternoon highlights

RAIN FORECAST

Storm forecast from Thursday morning to Friday evening

Radar simulation:

NAM 3 Km 9am THU to 7am FRI

Snapshots

Thursday morning

The early arrival over the mountains could lead to a sleet start above 2,000 feet.

Thursday afternoon

Rain will fall in urban areas during the afternoon.

Thursday evening

There will be persistent, moderate rain overnight.

Friday morning

The day may start with moderate to heavy rain in Southern Maryland and Southeast VA…but end elsewhere in our region. The day remains partly sunny with varying clouds.

Precipitation potential

Moderate to heavy rain falls over the mountains. The path of low pressure through Virginia will bring heavier rainfall south, and less north into central Pennsylvania.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 99L as the system expected to develop. There is an 80% chance that this will develop into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. If so, Sara is the next name on the list.

Model prediction traces

The general expectation is that this will turn the corner at Cancun and move through South Florida early next week. It’s too early to give details. We need a central, organized Low plan to better understand how this will behave.

Model prediction intensity

There are good indications that the environment supports growth to hurricane strength.

Forecast animation: ECMWF model

Next Tuesday, November 19 to Friday, November 22

I should point out that this is only one solution. I wanted to show how the circuit could interact with another system and lead to more rain in the Mid-Atlantic by the end of next week.

7 day forecast

After our rainfall, it will start to clear on Friday, after which we will have a sunny and mild weekend.

Next week, ‘Sara”s track could potentially bring us more rain later in the week.

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REPETITION OF MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors and that other errors occur occasionally. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even for the computer glitches I may overlook. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to earn the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had gotten this far without even knowing it, and that I shouldn’t let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell checker on my computer sometimes does it an injustice and makes things worse. I can also make mistakes when predicting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘long wordy’ stuff can get sticky.

There has been no editor to check my work while writing and to have it ready to ship in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves that what you read is really mine… It’s part of my charm. #FITF