North Carolina: Trump 50%, Harris 48% | Wisconsin-Trump 49% Harris 48%

WI: Baldwin (D) 48%, Hovde (R) 48%

NC: Stein (D) 51%, Robinson (R) 39%

New surveys from Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld show tight presidential races in North Carolina and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, 50% support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris. In Wisconsin, 49% support Trump and 48% support Harris.

“There is a clear gender gap, with men favoring Trump more strongly than women favor Harris,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In North Carolina, men support Trump by 13 points, while women support Harris by seven points. In Wisconsin, men support Trump by 12 points, while women support Harris by nine points.”

In Wisconsin, the battle for the US Senate is even: 48% support Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 48% support Republican Eric Hovde. Three percent have not yet made a decision.

In North Carolina, 51% support Democrat Josh Stein, while 39% support Republican Mark K. Robinson for governor. Four percent plan to vote for someone else and 6% are still undecided.

“Eight percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and also support Stein in the gubernatorial ballot, while few if any Harris voters are splitting their ticket to vote for Robinson,” Kimball noted.

The top issue for North Carolina voters is the economy at 40%, followed by threats to democracy at 14%, and housing affordability and immigration at 11%, respectively.

The top issue for Wisconsin voters is also the economy at 41%, followed by threats to democracy at 17%, abortion access at 10%, and immigration and housing affordability at 9%, respectively.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Wisconsin and North Carolina surveys were conducted October 21-22, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Wisconsin, n=800, has a credibility interval, similar to the margin of error (MOE) of a poll, of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in North Carolina, n=950, has a credibility interval, similar to the margin of error (MOE) of a poll, of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The datasets are weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region, based on 2024 likely voter models. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polls, and voter registration data.

It is important to remember that subgroups based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry higher credibility intervals as the sample size decreases. Survey results should be understood within the range of the survey scores, and with a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a survey will fall outside the range of the scores.

Data was collected by contacting mobile phones via MMS-to-web text (phone directory provided by Aristotle) ​​and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was presented in English.

All questions asked in this survey, with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross-tabulation, can be found under Full Results. This research was funded by RealClearWorld.

FULL RESULTS