Best bet

Chefs at Bills

Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS2.

Line: Invoices per 2.

Total: 46.

Records (general/ATS): Leaders 9-0/5-4; Bills 8-2/6-4.

Patrick Mahomes deserves all the credit he gets for his stellar success in seven seasons with the Chiefs: three Super Bowl championships, an 83-22 regular-season record, 15-3 postseason mark and two MVP awards. Nobody wins shootouts like Mahomes: he’s 17-13 (.567) when the Chiefs allow 27 or more points. No other active quarterback is above .500 in that category, including Lamar Jackson (8-12), Josh Allen (6-12), Joe Burrow (2-15) and Aaron Rodgers (21-51). Bears quarterbacks in that span are 1-32.

But since being drafted No. 10 overall by the Chiefs in 2017 instead of No. 2 by the Bears, Mahomes has had a knack for being in the right place at the right time. He makes his own breaks, but he gets a lot of them.

It’s uncanny how often fate seems to move its big hands in Mahomes’ favor. The latest example came Sunday, when Mahomes was outplayed by Broncos rookie Bo Nix but still came out on top as the Chiefs blocked Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal as time expired.

Credit Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub for exploiting a weakness the Chiefs discovered earlier in the game. Without that, Mahomes couldn’t have won.

The Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl championships are particularly impressive because they came despite a salary cap crisis that deprived Mahomes of offensive support. But he had help. In last year’s Super Bowl, the game’s two strangest events were both in Mahomes’ favor: the 49ers’ Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles tendon run onto the field in the second quarter, and a Chiefs 40-yard punt turned gold when it hit a 49ers player and the Chiefs recovered, setting up Mahomes for a 16-yard touchdown pass that gave the Chiefs a lead of 13-10. .

Mahomes is much better than his luck. But someone up there likes him. Neither the Chiefs nor Andy Reid seemed to get this kind of break before he arrived. In fact, in the Chiefs’ last playoff game before Mahomes, the Chiefs lost to the Titans when Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown pass to himself – a pass deflected right back to him by a Chiefs player. And when Mariota fumbled a bag, the turnover was negated when an official inexplicably – and incorrectly – ruled that Mariota’s progress had stopped.

Mahomes took over the following season and the ball has been bouncing the Chiefs’ way ever since. Some guys got it, some didn’t.

Choose: Chiefs 31, Bills 28.

TOP PLAYING

RAMS at PATRIOTS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Rams with 4½.

Total: 43½.

Records (general/ATS): Rans 4-5/3-6; Patriots 3-7/4-5-1.

Outlook: The loaded Rams fell to the Dolphins in mysterious fashion last week, failing to score a touchdown in a 23-15 loss after averaging 25.3 points in a three-game winning streak. They’ll be ready to atone for that misstep against a Patriots team that isn’t as good as it thinks after upsetting the struggling Bears last week.

Choose: Rams 30, Patriots 17.

BROWNS at SAINTS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Saints by 1.

Total: 44½.

Records (general/ATS): Brown 2-7/3-6; Saints 3-7/4-6.

Outlook: Saints snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 20-17 win over the Falcons in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s first game since Dennis Allen was fired. After that, there’s always a chance for disappointment — especially with the Browns parting ways and ex-Saints QB Jameis Winston returning to New Orleans, but not as likely at home.

Choose: Saints 24, Browns 16.

FALCONS at BRONCOS

Time: 3:05 PM

Line: Broncos by 2½.

Total: 44.

Records (general/ATS): Falcons 6-4/5-5; Broncos 5-5/7-3.

Outlook: Broncos are on a roll and Sean Payton thinks his team is laser-focused after blaming himself for a slump that led to Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal being blocked on the final play of a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs. Falcons also suffered a tough loss, but are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Choose: Broncos 22, Falcons 17.

OTHER GAMES

PACKERS at BEREN

Time: Afternoon, Fox 32.

Line: Packers of 5½. Total: 40.

Records (general/ATS): Packers 6-3/4-5; Bears 4-5/4-4-1.

Outlook: The Bears are reeling from three straight losses but are candidates for a fire-the-coordinator bump after OC Shane Waldron was replaced by passing game coordinator Thomas Brown. On the other hand, the Bears have lost 10 straight to the Packers (0-10 ATS) and Jordan Love has passer ratings of 128.6 (a career-high) and 123.2 against the Bears, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs.

Choose: Packers 24, bears 17.

VIKINGS at TITANS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Vikings with 6. Total: 49½.

Records (general/ATS): Vikings 7-2/6-3; Titans 2-7/1-8.

Outlook: The clock seemed to strike midnight last week on the Vikings’ reborn QB Sam Darnold – 3 INTs without a TD pass for a season-low 48.2 rating in a 12-7 win against the Jaguars. The last time Darnold was this bad, he responded with a solid performance (22 of 27, 259, 1 TD, 1 INT, 103.5 rating) in a 31-29 loss to the Lions. So Kevin O’Connell gets the benefit of the doubt.

Choose: Vikings 26, Titans 17.

JAGUARS at LIONS

Time: Afternoon, CBS2.

Line: Lions with 14. Total: 46½.

Records (general/ATS): Jaguars 2-8/6-4; Lions 8-1/7-2.

Outlook: Lions are again on a high after rallying from a 23-7 halftime deficit against the AFC South-leading Texans en route to a 26-23 victory. They could get a letdown, but coach Dan Campbell won’t allow that. Lions are home for only the second time since week 4; they will be ready for a big effort. Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games – including the last four – despite being 2-5 SU.

Choose: Lions 31, Jaguars 10.

RAVENING at STEELERS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Ravens per 3. Total: 48.

Records (general/ATS): Ravens 7-3/5-4-1; Steelers 7-2/7-2.

Outlook: Russell Wilson is not in his prime, but he hasn’t lost his ability to find a way to win. The Steelers are 3-0 and starting after Wilson threw a 32-yard touchdown pass to another Old Goat — former Chargers receiver Mike Williams — to beat the Commanders 28-27 last week. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 with a 66.3 rating (4 TDs, 7 INTs) versus the Steelers.

Choose: Steelers 26, Ravens 23.

RAIDERS at DOLPHINS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Dolphins with 7½. Total: 44.

Records (general/ATS): Raiders 2-7/4-5; Dolphins 3-6/3-6.

Outlook: After losing by 30 and 28 points to the Bills and Cardinals, the Dolphins held the Rams – with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – to five field goals last week in a 23-15 loss. The fading Raiders have lost five straight (2-3 ATS).

Choose: Dolphins 20, Raiders 16.

COLTS at JETS

Time: Afternoon.

Line: Jets with 4. Total: 44.

Records (general/ATS): Foals 4-6/7-3; Jets 3-7/3-7.

Outlook: Shane Steichen turns to Anthony Richardson again after losing to Joe Flacco against the Vikings and Bills. The last time Richardson returned, the Colts beat the Dolphins, but not because of Richardson, who was 10 of 24 for 129 yards and a 59.2 rating.

Choose: Jets 16, Colts 10.

SEAHAWKS at 49ERS

Time: 3:05 PM

Line: 49ers at 6½. Total: 48.

Records (general/ATS): Seahawks 4-5/2-6-1; 49ers 5-4/4-5.

Outlook: Christian McCaffrey looks to bring out the best in 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who had his best game of the season: 25 of 36, 353 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs for a 119.3 rating in a 23-20 win against the Buccaneers.

Choose: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17.

BENGAL at CHARGERS

Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC5.

Line: Chargers of 1½. Total: 48.

Records (general/ATS): Bengals 4-6/6-4; Chargers 6-3/6-3.

Outlook: The Chargers have allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 straight games. But that streak is in jeopardy against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who have scored 35 and 41 points in their last two games.

Choose: Bengals 27, Chargers 24.

TEXANS at COWBOYS

Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN/ABC 7.

Line: Texans with 7½. Total: 42.

Records (general/ATS): Texans 6-4/4-5-1; Cowboys 3-6/2-6-1.

Outlook: Trey Lance can’t fall much further. He couldn’t play in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Now he can’t beat Cooper Rush, who is expected to start again after an unimpressive game (13-of-23, 45 yards) against the Eagles.

Choose: Texans 24, Cowboys 14.