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    • Penn State rooting guide for title game
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    Penn State rooting guide for title game

    Vaseline Posted on

    With just two games remaining in the regular season, Penn State is in a strong, enviable position to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.

    The Nittany Lions enter their game Saturday in Minnesota with a 9-1 record, a No. 4 ranking in the U.S. LBM Coaches Poll and, most importantly, the No. xx spot in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s latest rankings.

    However, not all of coach James Franklin’s team goals are so easily within reach.

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    Penn State is on the outside looking to earn a spot in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis, with the winner of that game earning a top-four berth for the newly expanded 12-team playoff and a bye in the first round. .

    What will it take for the Nittany Lions to earn one of the top two spots in the conference standings and make just their second-ever trip to the Big Ten championship game?

    Here’s a look at the scenarios Penn State fans should hope for over the next two weeks if they want to see their team compete for a national title:

    Penn State roots guide to making Big Ten championship game

    Before laying out the Nittany Lions’ preferred scenario, it’s worth considering that this might be better for them not to make it to the championship game at all and not risk adding another loss to their resume.

    If Penn State wins its next two games and finishes 11-1, it will almost certainly earn one of the seven at-large berths in the playoffs and likely play a home game in the opening round of the playoff. While a win in the Big Ten title game would automatically guarantee a berth to the quarterfinals of the playoffs, a loss would at least create some uncertainty as to whether a team suddenly coming off two losses would get one of those big inclusions are.

    As things stand now, the Nittany Lions are tied for third place in the conference standings with Ohio State, which functionally puts them in fourth place since the Buckeyes met them on Nov. 2 at Beaver Stadium defeated 20-13. Both teams are 6-1 in league play, trailing 7-0 Indiana and 8-0 Oregon. The Ducks, the No. 1 team in the Coaches Poll, have their bye this week with just one regular-season game remaining.

    Considering this is the most likely scenario that Penn State and its fans should strive for to make it to the Big Ten championship game:

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    Penn State wins

    This goes without saying: For the Nittany Lions to have a realistic chance of finishing in the top two in an 18-team conference, they will need to win their final two games to finish 8-1 in Big Ten play.

    That should be an achievable task. As of early this week, they are 11.5-point road favorites against a 6-4 Minnesota team, though it’s worth noting that Penn State has lost each of its past two trips to Minneapolis, including in 2019 as number 1. 5 teams in the country. Then it gets a home game against Maryland, which is 1-6 in Big Ten play this season. The Nittany Lions are 43-3-1 all-time against the Terrapins.

    Ohio State beats Indiana in Week 13

    The Big Ten Championship contenders based on the current standings are simple, with Oregon and Indiana both maintaining undefeated records. While the Ducks are unlikely to lose with only one home game remaining against 6-5 Washington, the Hoosiers have a less navigable path.

    There may not be a bigger game Saturday than No. 5 Indiana’s matchup against No. 2 Ohio State. With only lowly Purdue left on the Hoosiers’ schedule, this is the only realistic chance Indiana has of losing for a potential conference championship game.

    As of Tuesday night, the Buckeyes are a 12.5-point favorite.

    Indiana beats Purdue in Week 14

    Of all the steps listed here, this is by far the most likely. The Boilermakers are 1-9 this season and have yet to defeat an FBS opponent. They lost those nine games by an average of 29.6 points and only fell below 17 points twice.

    Against the host Hoosiers, it will be a statistical mismatch as Purdue has the fourth-worst scoring defense in the FBS (38.9 points per game allowed) while Indiana has the second-best scoring offense (43.9 points per game) .

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    Michigan beats Ohio State in Week 14

    This is where thoughts become a little more unrealistic. The Wolverines are down significantly from where they were last season as undefeated national champions. Michigan is 5-5 heading into a game Saturday against Northwestern, although four of the five losses came to teams ranked at the time of the game.

    However, beating the Buckeyes would be a tall order, especially since the game is in Columbus.

    What would happen

    As the Big Ten announced Tuesday, Oregon has already secured a spot in the championship game no matter what happens over the next two weekends. Even if the Ducks lose to Washington and everything else falls into place as described here, Penn State would still reach Indianapolis on December 7, when it would face the Ducks.

    If Oregon beats Washington and everything previously agreed happens, the Ducks would be 9-0 in conference play, ahead of Indiana and Penn State, who would be tied for second place at 8-1. That deadlock would be broken by conference opponents’ winning percentage, with the Hoosiers’ conference foes currently sitting at 18-34 and the Nittany Lions sitting at 23-29. That could change over the next two weekends, but Penn State has plenty of cushion in that category.

    Big Ten Football Championship Tiebreakers

    Here is a list of the steps, in order, the Big Ten is taking to cut ties and determine which teams make it to the conference championship game:

    • The teams with a tie are compared based on head-to-head matches during the regular season.
    • The tied teams are compared against all regular conference opponents based on their record.
    • The tied teams will be matched against common opponents with the best conference record based on their record and will advance against common conference opponents based on their order of finish in the conference standings.
    • The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
    • The representative will be chosen based on SportSource Analytics’ highest ranking after the regular season.
    • The representative will be selected by a random drawing among the tied teams, conducted by the conference commissioner or designee.

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