Middleweights

Abusupiyan Magomedov (26-6-1, 2-2 UFC) vs. Brunno Ferreira (12-1, 3-1 UFC)

CHANCES: Magomedov (-142), Ferreira (+120)

When Magomedov got the call in the main event against Sean Strickland in 2023, it wasn’t a particularly deserved slot, considering his UFC career up to that point had consisted entirely of a 19-second knockout of Dustin Stoltzfus. However, there was some logic in immediately throwing Magomedov into the fire. With over a decade of experience under his belt, he was certainly at the point where it made sense to see if he could continue as a contender. Magomedov fell short there, but otherwise he’s been a solid mid-level fighter before and since, at his best early in his fights. Magomedov is a big middleweight who is quick to get into trouble, and he has found most of his success quickly catching his opponents off guard. If things go beyond a round, Magomedov doesn’t necessarily implode; it’s more that he runs out of ideas and stops surprising his opponents, allowing them to have a much more even fight. Magomedov’s last fight, a May victory over Warlley Alves, was a clear example of this, as he was able to outlast a fellow hot starter thanks to some solid but unspectacular wrestling. That’s the likely path to victory here against Brazil’s Ferreira, who has proven to be a dangerous fighter during his own four-fight UFC stint.

Ferreira’s game consists almost entirely of power punching, but announcing himself with a UFC debut victory over Gregory Rodrigues proved he can punch with just about anyone on the middleweight roster. Unfortunately, his second UFC fight against Nursulton Ruziboev showed that he can knockout himself, although he has since been able to bounce back with two more knockout wins coming in his wheelhouse. This should be a coin game for a few minutes while both men are at their best, but Magomedov seems like the surest bet in the long run. If he can’t literally beat the Brazilian, Ferreira’s wrestling looks particularly bad, so he should have little trouble picking up a win. The choice is Magomedov via decision.

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