When the College Football Playoff selection committee compares teams on the giant flatscreen monitors in its meeting room, contenders are listed with their schedules. Weaker opponents are indicated with a bright red box highlighting the date of the game, and ranked and stronger opponents stand out with a bright green box.

The committee has no trouble quickly identifying who played a tough schedule, and it starts in September — long before members even begin to meet.

Each team has a sheet with an entire section dedicated to schedule strength. Though it’s certainly not the only factor the group considers, it’s a major part of the discussions every season for the past decade. That will continue in the 12-team playoff, and while it can affect the seeding for the top teams, it will also be used to help determine the seven at-large teams.

A nonconference loss doesn’t mean a team is doomed — especially in this more forgiving 12-team field that rewards the five highest-ranked conference champions. But a win? That could be the boost a contender needs to earn a spot in the field — just like Texas got last year by beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Can the Longhorns’ Sept. 7 win against Michigan loom just as large?

Below we’ll look at this season’s biggest nonconference winners so far, and how it will impact Selection Day.

We’ll also predict how the committee would rank the top 12 teams after Week 3. The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking, of course. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

So here’s our third prediction of the season for how the committee would rank — not seed — the top 12 teams, plus our 10 most impactful nonconference games (so far).

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10 impactful nonconference wins
Ranking the top 12

10. Miami 41, Florida 17: The Gators are in disarray, but going into the Swamp and beating their rivals in the season opener will still carry some weight for the Canes in the committee meeting room. It’s still better than a home win against Arkansas (Oklahoma State), and even a road win against now 0-3 Florida State (Memphis). Alabama’s win at Wisconsin was a decent true road win but came against an unranked Badgers’ team playing with its backup quarterback.

9. Oregon 49, Oregon State 14: Saturday’s road win against their in-state rival gave the Ducks a better nonconference win than any nonleague win Big Ten colleagues Ohio State and Michigan will have on their résumé this month.

8. Penn State 34, West Virginia 12: Winning in Morgantown isn’t easy. PSU coach James Franklin said the Nittany Lions walked into “a hornets’ nest.”

7. Kansas State 31, Arizona 7: This was a nonconference game because it was scheduled in 2016, before Arizona joined the Big 12. Though it doesn’t count for the conference standings, it will help K-State separate from another contender for an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league.

6. Oregon 37, Boise State 34: It’s possible the Ducks beat the eventual Mountain West Conference champion, and the Broncos could also be a playoff team if they finish the season as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

5. Notre Dame 23, Texas A&M 13: Just because the Irish lost to NIU doesn’t mean this win didn’t happen. In fact, it’s even more important. Notre Dame needs as much help as it can get elsewhere on its résumé to compensate for that loss, and a road win against an SEC team will continue to help them as long as the Aggies have a decent season.

4. USC 27, LSU 20: This was a neutral-site game, but in front of mostly LSU fans. It continues to help the Trojans’ playoff résumé after LSU found a way to win at South Carolina on Saturday, but LSU keeps playing with fire. As long as the Tigers keep winning, USC will benefit from it.

3. Georgia 34, Clemson 3: It’s possible Georgia has a convincing win against the eventual ACC champion, which could help the Bulldogs cement the No. 1 seed if there’s a debate with, say, Ohio State.

2. Texas 31, Michigan 12: Beating the defending national champion in Ann Arbor will get the selection committee’s attention all season, but the true value of it depends on if Michigan finishes as a one-loss team or a four-loss team. Clearly this is a different version than the 2023 Wolverines.

1. Northern Illinois 16, Notre Dame 14: In what could be the biggest upset of the season, NIU earned the best nonconference win of any Group of 5 contender — and overall — and it looks even better after Notre Dame went on the road and bullied Purdue.

Why they could be here: The Longhorns ascend to No. 1 because they have the best quarterback room in the country, are one of the deepest teams and have one of the best nonconference wins. Even with starting quarterback Quinn Ewers out of the game because of a strained abdomen Saturday, backup Arch Manning came in and Texas cruised against UTSA. The depth on this roster has been on full display every week, including the Week 2 win at Michigan. Texas continues to roll while Georgia struggled to beat unranked Kentucky on Saturday, trailing 6-3 at the half.

Why they could be lower: The only reason Texas would be lower is if the people on the committee truly believe Georgia is more talented. The Bulldogs’ win against Clemson was a neutral-site game in Atlanta — not far from Georgia’s campus — while Texas went to Ann Arbor and beat the defending national champion soundly on its home turf.

Need to know: Georgia and Texas will settle this on the field Oct. 19 in Austin, but they could face each other again in the SEC championship game. If Texas beats Georgia at home during the regular season, but then loses to the Bulldogs in the SEC title game, the highest they could be seeded is No. 5 because the four highest-ranked conference champions earn the first four seeds and a first-round bye. The same is true if the results flip.

Why they could be here: In addition to the dominant nonconference win against Clemson, the Bulldogs earned their first SEC win Saturday against Kentucky, but it wasn’t pretty. Georgia was unable to lead through three quarters, struggled to convert third downs, couldn’t run the ball and allowed Kentucky a significant advantage in controlling the clock.

Why they could be lower: Georgia struggled all game against a Kentucky team that had lost at home to unranked South Carolina. This opened the door for Ohio State to move up to the No. 3 spot, but Georgia’s dominant win against Clemson is still far better than any opponent the Buckeyes have defeated so far.

Need to know: The committee doesn’t care what Georgia did before this season. If past performances mattered to the group, Georgia would have finished in the top four last year. The committee will find out more about Georgia in Week 5, when the Bulldogs travel to Alabama for what ESPN Research projects will be their most difficult remaining game of the season. Alabama has a 52.9% chance to win, and ESPN Research now gives Texas a 59.5% chance to beat Georgia in Austin on Oct. 19.

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes are coming off a bye week, so they didn’t do anything to help or hurt themselves. They have arguably the best running back room in the country with the duo of Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The Buckeyes have outscored their first two opponents 108-6, and this placement assumes the committee would reward Ohio State’s sheer talent.

Why they could be lower: Their nonconference lineup is weak, with three straight home games against Akron, Western Michigan so far and Marshall in Week 4.

Need to know: If — IF — Ohio State doesn’t win the Big Ten and earn an automatic bid, this nonconference schedule would come under the microscope in the committee meeting room. It’s not enough to keep the Buckeyes out of the CFP assuming they continue to look the part, but it could impact how they are ultimately seeded, along with head-to-head results against other contenders like Oregon.

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Antwane Wells Jr. makes an incredible one-handed grab in the end zone

Jaxson Dart fires it along the sideline to Antwane Wells Jr., who makes an unbelievable one-handed grab in the end zone for Ole Miss.

Why they could be here: The Rebels finally added a win against a Power 4 nonconference opponent, albeit against an overmatched Wake Forest team. The committee would at least give a nod to the road win and recognize the Rebels have not only been scoring at least 50 points in every game, but the defense hasn’t given up a touchdown yet, either. A common trait of past playoff participants has been statistically complete teams, and Ole Miss entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in total efficiency (96.8).

Why they could be lower: Strength of schedule would be the only reason, as Ole Miss opened against FCS opponent Furman, and might not face a ranked opponent until October against LSU.

Need to know: As good as Ole Miss has looked, ESPN Research gives the Rebels the fourth-best chance to win the SEC behind Georgia, Texas and Alabama. If Ole Miss is contending for one of the seven at-large bids, it probably will need a winning record against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia.

Why they could be here: The Canes have finally found some consistency, and once again dominated an unranked, unheralded opponent, leaving no doubt it was the better team. There’s not much more Miami can do against the opponents it has face. Miami entered Saturday No. 3 in the country in game control, trailing only Texas and Ole Miss.

Why they could be lower: Two of the three wins have come at home against Group of 5 opponents.

Need to know: While the road win at rival Florida still matters, Miami’s overall strength of schedule could be an issue if the Canes don’t win the ACC. Right now, Louisville could be the only ranked opponent they face during the regular season. If Miami continues to dominate its competition the way it has, that might not be an issue, but if the Canes lose a game they shouldn’t — and don’t win the ACC — it could be a problem. Miami entered Saturday No. 60 in strength of schedule.

Why they could be here: The nonconference win against LSU boosted USC onto the committee’s radar, and that didn’t change during the Trojans’ bye week. It helped USC that LSU found a way to escape South Carolina with a win, but …

Why they could be lower: Oregon finally put together an impressive offensive performance against rival Oregon State on the Beavers’ home turf and looked the part of a playoff contender. The committee could place a higher value on the Ducks’ eye-popping performance than it does a narrow win against an LSU team that struggled to beat unranked opponents Nicholls and South Carolina.

Need to know: The selection committee considers common opponents as one of its tiebreakers, and USC could have a few impactful ones. The Trojans, like Texas, will play at Michigan this month. Like Alabama, they will also face Wisconsin. And USC and former Pac-12 partner Utah now also have a common opponent in Utah State, but the committee will know that Utah was without injured starting quarterback Cam Rising in the 38-21 win.

Why they could be here: After struggling in their first two games against Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks finally put it all together against rival Oregon State. Though it’s unclear how good Oregon State might be this season, the committee would still reward Oregon for beating its rival on the road. The Ducks had 240 rushing yards while holding the Beavers scoreless in the second half.

Why they could be higher: The committee would get its first glimpse of the Ducks when they’re at their best against better competition. There is also a high regard in the room for strong quarterback play, and Dillon Gabriel threw for 291 yards and accounted for three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

Need to know: As members of the Big Ten this year, Oregon will play both Ohio State and Michigan during the regular season. Because the Big Ten scrapped its divisions and the top two teams will play for the conference title, it’s possible the Ducks face one of them a second time in the conference championship game. If Oregon beats Ohio State at home on Oct. 12 during the regular season but loses to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game, that regular-season win would be critical in making their case for an at-large bid because it would show the committee they had a win against the eventual Big Ten champion — even if Oregon lost at Michigan and finished as a two-loss team. It’s not a guarantee, but it has helped teams in the past.

Why they could be here: The Tide earned a dominant road win against an unranked Wisconsin team that lost its starting quarterback to injury — all factors the committee would consider, in addition to the fact Alabama has yet to beat a ranked opponent. How the Tide won matters, though, and they hit two major goals for improvement — win the turnover battle and cut down on penalties. After racking up 13 penalties for 120 yards in a close win against South Florida, Bama committed only four against the Badgers and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Why they could be higher: It’s clear Alabama is starting to find its groove with new coach Kalen DeBoer, as quarterback Jalen Milroe accounted for five touchdowns in one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten. The selection committee also pays attention to injuries to key players, and having left tackle Jadyn Proctor return to the lineup after sitting out two games because of an injured left shoulder would be noted. That’s part of the reason there were fewer penalties.

Need to know: Alabama has a bye week before hosting Georgia on Sept. 28, and ESPN Research gives the Tide a 52.9% chance to win at home.

Why they could be here: The win at West Virginia — and how Penn State played in that game — is evidence the Nittany Lions have a talented team capable of handling a tough road environment and a two-hour weather delay. Those are all intangibles the committee members recognize. Though the Bowling Green win wasn’t pretty, Penn State found a way to win a week after that tricky season opener.

Why they could be lower: WVU and Bowling Green are unranked opponents, and it didn’t help the Nittany Lions that West Virginia lost to Pitt on Saturday in a thrilling Backyard Brawl. There were also questions about the defense after it gave up 24 first-half points to Bowling Green in Week 2.

Need to know: Penn State might face only two ranked opponents during the regular season — at No. 11 USC on Oct. 12, and against No. 3 Ohio State on Nov. 2. If the Nittany Lions don’t win the Big Ten, they can’t go 0-2 against those teams — especially if they win every other game like they did Bowling Green.

Why they could be here: K-State had a complete performance against a ranked opponent with its win against Arizona on Friday night, a tough turnaround in a short week. The selection committee would be impressed by how the Wildcats played, and who they did it against — a talented Arizona team that had won nine straight games. When Arizona focused on stopping K-State’s running backs, they responded with a stellar performance from quarterback Avery Johnson. K-State’s defense also held Arizona scoreless for the final three quarters.

Why they could be lower: K-State struggled to beat Tulane, while Oklahoma had no trouble handling the Green Wave on Saturday. Granted, the Sooners had home-field advantage, while the Wildcats walked into New Orleans. The biggest separator here is K-State finding ways to beat back-to-back tough opponents, including a true road game, which both Missouri and Tennessee (neutral-site win) have not had to do yet.

Need to know: According to ESPN Research, the Wildcats’ toughest game all season is already behind them (Tulane). That gives K-State the best chance to win the wide-open Big 12 at 29.6% entering Saturday. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field.

Why they could be here: Missouri beat a respectable Boston College team by controlling the clock, forcing two turnovers, and limiting the Eagles to only 46 rushing yards (1.8 yards per carry). It’s unlikely they’re much higher because the Tigers have played three straight home games against average-at-best competition while some other contenders have earned tough road wins or played neutral-site games. Still, the selection committee would regard Missouri as one of the nation’s more complete teams because of its success on both offense and defense through three games.

Why they could be lower: The group could deem Tennessee a better team. Both Missouri (Boston College) and Tennessee (NC State) have defeated ACC teams and padded the stats against FCS opponents. Improved defenses have also been a storyline for both teams. Statistically, the Vols have been slightly better overall, leading the nation in defensive efficiency (Mizzou is No. 2), and ranking No. 17 in offensive efficiency (Mizzou is No. 39) entering Saturday.

Need to know: No. 24 Boston College could fall out of the Associated Press Top 25 after the loss, which raises the question: Did Mizzou beat a ranked opponent? The selection committee doesn’t consider the AP Top 25. What matters is how many CFP op 25 opponents a team beat. Does the committee consider BC a Top 25 team at the end of the season? If not, Missouri might need to beat Alabama or Oklahoma to earn some ranked wins if it’s in a battle with another contender for an at-large spot.

Why they could be here: The Vols have been crushing anyone in their way, and Kent State was their latest punching bag, but one of those wins was at home against an FCS team, which the committee notices. The Vols also upended NC State in a neutral-site game, but Missouri’s home win against BC could be better, especially since the injury status of NC State quarterback Grayson McCall is unknown and the Pack clearly struggled without him in the win against Louisiana Tech.

Why they could be higher: A sheer abundance of talent. Tennessee had 50 points — with 7:49 remaining in the first half against Kent State. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is a superstar, and the defense has been equally impressive.

Need to know: Tennessee has a chance to enhance its playoff résumé in Week 4 at Oklahoma, which is now a game that will affect the SEC standings. ESPN Research gives the Vols a 66.6% chance to win.

Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Texas (SEC champ), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (the top Group of 5 conference champion) at No. 5 Georgia; No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Ole Miss; No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 USC; and No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oregon.

Tennessee, ranked No. 12 above, would not make this version of the playoff with the fifth conference champion from the Group of 5 taking its place.