HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: CONE FORECAST, SPAGHETTI PLOTS, MAPS, WARNINGS AND MORE

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while Rafael was strengthening rapidly, it is expected to weaken briefly as it passes through western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane force (75 mph or higher) as it enters the Gulf.

Rafael has lashed parts of the western Caribbean on its journey to Cuba and eventually the Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC said it is concerned that heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in Cuba’s upper reaches.

The eye of the storm is approaching western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon. According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to make landfall in the coming hours.

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Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected in the western Caribbean, especially the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, until early Thursday. The NHC said precipitation totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected in parts of Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 12 inches in higher terrain. An additional two to four inches could fall in the Cayman Islands.

Precipitation totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys.

Forecasters are also concerned about the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 3 to 4 meters above normal high tide levels is possible in areas with onshore winds along Cuba’s southern coast within the hurricane warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas National Park area, with 1 to 2 feet forecast in the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graph shows the status of Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is located approximately 50 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at a speed of 14 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a high-end Category 3 hurricane.

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Hurricane and tropical storm warnings.

A hurricane warning remains in effect throughout western Cuba, including Havana.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as the Dry Tortugas. Central Cuba is also under a tropical storm warning.

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What are the forecasts for Hurricane Rafael?

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next two days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, Rafael is expected to move near or just east of the Isle of Youth in the coming hours, making landfall in western Cuba later Wednesday. Rafael will then surface in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

From that point on, the computer prediction models disagree on where exactly Rafael is going.

“It is too early to determine what impact Rafael could have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should regularly monitor weather forecast updates.”