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    • Rafael’s track shows that the hurricane season could have a rare landfall in November
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    Rafael’s track shows that the hurricane season could have a rare landfall in November

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    Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is expected to undergo “rapid intensification,” the National Hurricane Center says. It will become a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rarity in November. Wind shear, dry air and slightly cooler water temperatures will weaken it as it approaches the northern Gulf by the end of the week.

    According to hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Rafael is the 17th storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. An average year has 14 storms.

    Mentioned storms in November

    Since 2013, eight so-called storms have developed in November. Of those eight, only four made landfall, and only two made landfall in the US.

    How rare are November hurricane landfalls in the US?

    Of the 287 hurricanes that made landfall on the US mainland since 1851 in NOAA’s database, only four did so in November. Three made landfall in Florida and one in North Carolina.

    Where do storms typically form in November?

    Most storms form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and move north and northeast, while an eastward-moving trough usually carries the storm away. Depending on conditions, this setup often produces storms near the Florida Peninsula. This is also the case in October, although the number of storms in November is considerably lower.

    Tropical systems are less common in November due to less favorable atmospheric conditions. Additionally, developing storms find it more challenging to make landfall in the US as cold fronts become more common during this time. These cold fronts could keep storms away from the East Coast or confined to the Caribbean.

    How many storms have formed this season?

    There have been 17 named storms this hurricane season. Ten of these developed into hurricanes, and three of them became major hurricanes

    Where is Raphael?

    Although November 30 marks the official end of hurricane season, we may not be done yet. This season could be “one of the busiest ever,” according to NOAA’s August forecast. Tropical activity typically decreases after mid-October, but storms may continue to develop until December this year.

    Contributors: Gabe Hauari and Doyle Rice

    Source: USA TODAY Network reporting and research; NOAA

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