It’s starting to look a lot like $30 million for the opening weekend of Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ mega-budget holiday hit “Red One,” which comes in at the shorter end of projections. Amazon MGM Studios grossed $10.9 million from 4,032 theaters during its opening day and preview screenings in North America.

That’s not exactly a cheerful outcome for a special effects adventure that involves playing in top-tier large-format venues and a production budget of a whopping $250 million, plus significant marketing costs. Unless Seven Bucks’ production can remain relevant between the blitz of “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” arriving before the Thanksgiving holiday, it seems unlikely that “Red One” will see greenlight in its theatrical run.

The question remains how much Amazon really cares about being associated with tepid box office returns, what with a $2 trillion-plus market cap and all. The costs of “Red One” don’t seem so daunting in that context. Amazon made a big bid for the project in 2021, and the logic is that the film could be a holiday monster on Prime Video, where it could also complement Amazon’s holiday e-commerce business. Furthermore, “Red One” was originally commissioned as a Prime Video exclusive before Amazon added a wide release, so any box office gains are likely just a perk for the company.

For Amazon MGM, “Red One” will easily score the biggest opening weekend for the banner since “Creed III,” which was commissioned under MGM’s old regime and released just a year after the acquisition. And “Red One” is on a better path than last spring’s Apple piece “Argylle,” another expensive action film with franchise potential. That film had a price tag of $200 million and ended up with $96 million worldwide before arriving on Apple TV+, which has a significantly smaller reach than Amazon Prime.

Still, there’s some bah-humbugging to be had with “Red One” as a test of its stars’ theatrical appeal. The film won’t match the opening weekends of Johnson’s two previous vehicles, “Black Adam” ($67 million) and “Jungle Cruise” ($35 million), the latter of which launched simultaneously on Disney+ as a premium rental. And it’s not a triumphant theatrical return for Evans, whose leading live-action roles have lived on on streaming since he finished playing Captain America in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Directed by Jake Kasdan, “Red One” follows a plot of combat-trained specialists who rescue a kidnapped Santa Claus (JK Simmons). Critics have panned the film, but audiences are much happier, with moviegoer Cinema Score scoring a positive A-score among early ticket buyers. It needs to be on the public’s nice list to have a chance of continuing to draw audiences.

Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” should slide to second place after three weekends at the top of the domestic charts, with a projected $6.1 million, down 61% in its fourth outing. The Marvel spinoff has now surpassed $120 million in North America and $400 million worldwide. After a disappointing launch, it now appears that Tom Hardy’s buddy comedy won’t end up far behind its franchise predecessor “Let There Be Carnage,” which ended with a worldwide gross of $500 million.

Third goes to “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” down 54% for $6 million. With a production budget of $10 million, the Lionsgate release will reach $20 million domestically shortly after the weekend — a solid theatrical showing for Christian-focused production banner Kingdom Story Company.

A24’s psychological thriller ‘Heretic’ looks set to slide to fourth place, with rivals predicting a sophomore price of $4.6 million. That would be a drop of 57%. The Hugh Grant horror film is also set to surpass $20 million through Monday.

Universal’s ‘The Wild Robot’ looks to round out the top five and expects another small drop (-32%) to boost grosses by another $4.5 million. The DreamWorks Animation production continues to top the charts in its eighth weekend of release. It appears the domestic total through Sunday will be $137 million. It will then pass fellow Lupita Nyong’o starrer “A Quiet Place: Day One” ($138 million) to place itself as the 12th highest grossing North American grosser of the year.