close
close

first Drop

Com TW NOw News 2024

Return of the veteran RB? Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and the first signs of a revival
news

Return of the veteran RB? Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and the first signs of a revival

Seven games into Derrick Henry’s first season with the Baltimore Ravens, he leads the NFL running backs in scrimmage yards per game. The longtime former Tennessee Titan’s high averages are career highs through seven games, both per game and per carry.

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles, formerly of the New York Giants, ranks second behind Henry in scrimmage yards per game by running backs. His yards rushing per game are the best of his career in a season so far.

Both running backs were available for all 32 teams to pursue as free agents. Henry and Barkley had company. Fellow running backs Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift and Aaron Jones are all producing at a high level for new teams that have increased their financial investments at the position (Mixon was traded for a seventh-round pick, while the others free agency reached).

“I don’t really understand the Giants stuff,” Bill Belichick said on “The Pat McAfee Show.” “(Barkley) was their best player. They could have kept him for a few million dollars more. Instead they got a guard or someone else.”

The decisions surrounding these running backs were long-term strategic decisions, with aspects unique to each situation. No final judgments can be made in Week 8 as more than 60 percent of the games have not yet been played. But the early returns were extreme enough to reconsider how teams value running backs in a pass-oriented league, and how these teams handled the position in particular.

So far, the way 14 teams are handling offseason changes involving 15 running backs shows that teams generally get what they paid for when addressing the position in the veteran market.

First, we consider year-over-year changes in running backs from scrimmage, highlighting notable teams.

Change in RB scrimmage yards/game, 2023-24

The six blue-shaded teams in the table above – Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Houston, Green Bay and Chicago – increased their investments at the position by acquiring veterans making at least $7 million per year.

The four red-colored teams – the New York Giants, Cincinnati, Dallas and Las Vegas – parted ways with expensive backs to go cheaper at the position.

The lone gray team (Tennessee) paid about as much per season for newcomer Tony Pollard ($7.25 million) as his former running back, Henry, brought in from the Ravens ($8 million).

Getting what they paid for: expensive RB upgrades

RB added

API

Tm RB Yds +/-

Replace RB

API

$12.6 million

+34.0/G

Fast (CHI)

$8 million

$12 million

+19.1/G

Jones (MIN)

$7 million

$9.9 million

+33.7/G

Singletair (NYG)

$5.5 million

$8 million

+41.3/G

Edwards/Dobbins (LAC)

$4.9 million

$8 million

-0.4/G

N/A

N/A

$7 million

+39.0/G

Mattison (LV)

$2 million

The Eagles, Packers, Texans, Ravens and Vikings are gaining an average of 33.4 additional scrimmage yards per game by running backs this season compared to last season. All six teams above, except Chicago, rank among the NFL’s top 11 in running back scrimmage yards per game through Week 7.

•Baltimore Ravens: Henry, who at age 30 is on a two-year contract, leads all running backs in scrimmage yards per game (133.6). His runs of 87 and 81 yards are the longest in the league this season. He’s a better fit in Baltimore than he is in Tennessee – the perfect addition to a team whose identity is strength.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

Derrick Henry was a perfect fit for the Ravens and embraced the role of closer

• Philadelphia Eagles: Barkley is averaging 126.8 scrimmage yards per game. He is second only to Henry for an Eagles team that ranks fifth in that category. Barkley’s former team is ranked 29th, which makes the Eagles’ signing of Barkley look better, but the Giants were ranked 32nd last year with Barkley starting 14 games.

• Green Bay Packers: The Packers could have kept Aaron Jones, but they paid more to sign younger Josh Jacobs, who ranks 12th in scrimmage yards per game (93.9) and sixth in total scrimmage yards (657) .

• Houston Texans: Mixon was headed to free agency when the Texans acquired him for a seventh-round pick, hoping the move would help them extend Mixon’s deal before he hit the market. The strategy worked. Mixon signed a long-term deal. He has missed three games due to injury, which explains why he ranks third among backs in scrimmage yards per game (121.0) but only 18th in total yards (484). Houston has averaged 74.7 fewer scrimmage yards from running backs in the three full games Mixon missed (107.0) than in the three full games he has played (181.7).

• Chicago Bears: The Bears lag and remain slightly short in scrimmage yards against running backs on a year-over-year basis, but they are trending positively. D’Andre Swift (86.3 yards per game, 19th) has gained 404 yards over Chicago’s past three games after a slow start.

• Minnesota Vikings: The Packers’ decision to acquire Jones suited the Vikings, who signed him to a one-year contract with voidable years. Jones ranks sixth in scrimmage yards per game (105.5).

Get what they deserved? Teams save money

RB added

API

TM RB YDS +/-

Replace RB

API

$5.5 million

+10.4/G

Saquon Barkley

$12.6 million

$4 million

+2.9/G

Joe Mixon

$9.9 million

$2 million

-8.8/G

Jos Jacobs

$12 million

$2 million

-2.8/G

Tony Pollard

$7.3 million

The Giants, Bengals, Raiders and Cowboys are among the seven worst teams in running back scrimmage yards through Week 7. Their production is flat on average year-over-year, in part because the Giants’ 2023 averages were so low.

We can’t assume that all the running backs these teams lost would have flourished to the same extent if their 2023 teams had re-signed them. We can’t even assume those running backs would have re-signed to the terms they accepted elsewhere. But it’s fair to say that these teams would probably be in a better position if they had kept the running backs they didn’t retain.

• New York Giants: Devin Singletary ranks 33rd in scrimmage yards per game among running backs (62.8), 10 spots higher than fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. (48.4). Those two got the work that Barkley would have gotten if the Giants had kept him. Barkley averaged 88.7 scrimmage yards per game last season and 103.1 in 2022. The 126.8 yards pace he’s posting in Philadelphia this season certainly reflects a more favorable environment for him.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

As the boos descended, Saquon Barkley ran over the Giants in his return

• Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss ranks 36th in scrimmage yards per game (55.7), two spots ahead of teammate Chase Brown (55.1). Mixon averages more than both combined for a Texans team that is much more run-oriented by design.

• Las Vegas Raiders: Alexander Mattison ranks 34th in scrimmage yards per game (59.4) as the primary replacement for Jacobs, who appears reborn in Green Bay.

•Dallas Cowboys: While the Cowboys brought back Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle leads the team’s running backs in touches (75) and scrimmage yards per game (62.8, which ranks 69th among running backs). That’s less than Pollard’s average with Tennessee (81.0) and about half the average of the bigger-ticket veteran running backs acquired by other teams.

Owner Jerry Jones likely had the Cowboys’ leaky defense in mind when he suggested Henry wouldn’t have a career year if he had signed with Dallas, which trails on 63 percent of plays, the seventh-highest rate in the league, per TruMedia.

Did you get cute and pay a price?

Only five teams have lost more running back scrimmage yards per game than the Titans have lost.

RB added API TM RB Yds +/- Replace RB API

$7.3

-14.2

Dirk Hendrik

$8 million

• Tennessee Titans: The Titans got younger at the position by replacing Henry with Pollard (81.0 scrimmage yards per game, 22nd). They also subtracted the player who the opposing defense had to respect the most. The defense would have an easier time slowing Henry in Tennessee than in Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson’s presence and offensive infrastructure maximize Henry’s production. However, that only reduces the sting so much.

Small-scale considerations with interesting results

RB added

API

Tm RB Yds +/-

Replace RB

API

$4.9 million

+31.0/G

Austin Ekeler

$4.2 million

$4.2 million

+25.5/G

Antonio Gibson

$3.8 million

$3.8 million

+9.9/G

Ezekiel Elliott

$2 million

• Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh brought a run-game mentality to the Chargers and did well by signing former Ravens running backs JK Dobbins (15th in scrimmage yards per game with 92.3) and Gus Edwards (62nd, 28.8). Both played for Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, in Baltimore, so the fit was a natural.

• Washington Commanders: Holdover Brian Robinson (23rd in scrimmage yards per game at 77.3) and former Charger Austin Ekeler (30th, 64.8) help the Commanders rank eighth in scrimmage yards per game. The change in schedule and increased threat of the quarterback run will help maximize production at reasonable rates.

• New England Patriots: The Patriots got younger by adding Antonio Gibson (41st, 49.9) and moving on from Elliott.

graph visualization

The chart above shows that the annual franchise tag value for running backs has fallen in recent years before rising to $11.6 million in 2024. That’s up only slightly from $11.2 million in 2019.

Teams have become wary of paying veteran running backs at the top of the market in recent years, mindful of these players’ shorter careers and diminishing returns as they age.

Henry turns out to be an outlier. Time will tell if Barkley, Jacobs, Mixon and Swift stay healthy long enough to justify their higher salaries.

The results so far this season reflect, at least to some extent, what happens when talented players leave bad situations for more favorable ones. That phenomenon transcends positions, with Sam Darnold’s experience as a Minnesota Viking this season at the top of the list.

“I think what we’re seeing here is that elite backs are still worth paying, especially if they contribute in the third position,” said one director. “And then it usually doesn’t work when you try to reinvent the wheel to save a few dollars.”

(Photo by Derrick Henry: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The football100

The football100

The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 compelling profiles, top football writers justify their selections and reveal the history of the NFL in the process.

The story of the greatest players in NFL history.

BuyBuy The Football 100