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    ‘Running on vibes’: Pollster Nate Silver gives 24 reasons why Trump could win

    Vaseline Posted on

    'Running on vibes': Pollster Nate Silver gives 24 reasons why Trump could win

    As the US presidential election enters its final stages, pollster, statistician and founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silverlisted 24 reasons why Republican hopeful Donald Trump could win the race for the White House with his third bid.
    In his recent blog, Silver stated that this election is essentially a toss-up, but Donald Trump is gaining ground.
    “These elections remain extremely close, but Donald Trump has gained ground. One of my pet peeves is the idea that this is Kamala Harris’s election to lose,” Silver said.
    “I could level some criticism at her campaign, but if you study the factors that have historically determined elections, you will see that she faces difficult circumstances,” he added.
    Here is the list of factors, according to Nate Silver, that favor Donald Trump in the race for the White House.

    1. According to Silver, Vice President Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College bias is about 2 percentage points in favor of the Republican Party. Nate added that in the era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome.
    2. Silver said inflation and high prices will also play a key role in the election because they have historically been very sensitive to inflation. While inflation has now subsided, Democrats can probably be blamed for that too, given the intensive increases in government spending during the Covid recovery efforts.
    3. Silver also claimed that voters’ perceptions of the economy lag significantly behind objective data, and that net income growth for the working class has been slow for years amid rising corporate profits.
    4. Turning to the global trend, Silver said that incumbents worldwide are doing very poorly, and that the incumbent’s historic advantage has diminished to the point where it can now be a handicap for the incumbent, given continued negative perceptions about the direction of the country.
    5. The pollster also said that populism is often a very effective strategy, and that many Trump voters are indeed “deplorable” in the Hillary Clinton meaning of the word.
    6. According to Silver, illegal and unauthorized immigration also increased during the Biden/Harris term, amid the growing global backlash against immigration. According to Silver, this would also have an impact on the votes.
    7. Harris’ far-left stance and unpopular positions in 2019 will also affect her election prospects, Silver said. He added that Harris also doesn’t really have a viable strategy for explaining her changing positions.
    8. According to the pollster, the cultural atmosphere is shifting to the right and the left continues to pay a price for 2020’s excesses on Covid, crime, “wokeness” and other issues.
    9. Voters are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance in Trump’s first three years in office and associate 2020’s problems with Democrats, even though they were not in charge at the time, Silver said.
    10. Silver argued that Democrats’ dominance among African American voters and other racial and ethical minority groups is declining as memories of the civil rights era fade. Polarization in education, which is driving worsening democratic performance among working-class voters of all races, could come to dominate other factors as well. It’s possible this could work out well for Democrats if Harris makes corresponding gains among white voters, who have more influence in the electoral college, but there’s no guarantee, he added.
    11. According to Silver, many men, especially young men, feel lost amid declining college enrollment, contributing to a shift to the right and a growing gender gap.
    12. Joe Biden He wanted to be president until he was 86. Voters had extremely reasonable objections to this, and it neutralizes what should have been one of Harris’ best issues about Trump’s age and cognitive fitness, Silver said.
    13. According to the pollster, Harris also started her race late and inherited most of the staff from the poorly managed Biden campaign. She’s proven to be a good candidate in many ways, but it’s always a big leap when the understudy is suddenly thrust into the spotlight.
    14. Silver added that Harris wants to become the first female president. In the only previous attempt, the undecided broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed in her polls.
    15. Silver said trust in the media continues to plummet to abysmal levels. One can debate how blame for this can be attributed to long-standing conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular decline in trust in institutions, and various forms of press overreach and hypocrisy. But it’s difficult for even legitimate Trump criticism to get through to the general public. For example, Trump’s conviction on a series of charges made little difference.
    16. The pollster claimed that Trump has characteristics of a classic con man, but cons are often effective, and Trump is adept at convincing voters that he is on their side, even if his election would not be in their best interests. Moreover, Trump presents Democrats with a Three Stooges syndrome problem: a series of plausible attacks so large that they tend to cancel each other out.
    17. According to Silver, the Democrats’ group of highly educated advisers have poor instincts for appealing to the general public, while Trump has done more to cultivate support among “weird” fringe voting groups.
    18. Silver said Democrats’ argument that Trump poses a crucial threat to US democracy is a tough sell, as January 6 was ultimately a near miss. It is counterintuitive to voters that democracy is under threat and that Democrats may have bet too many chips on this line of attack, he added.
    19. Foreign policy may not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden’s term. Globally, there is a decline in democracy and an increase in interstate conflict, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, deteriorating US-China relations, increasing immigration flows due to global instability, and a withdrawal from Afghanistan that is negatively affected Biden’s popularity, Silver said. .
    20. Silver claimed that the war between Israel and Hamas divided the Democratic base in a way that no comparable issue has divided the Republican base.
    21. According to Silver, there are more left-wing third-party candidates than right-wing ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump, undermining Harris’ momentum after the convention.
    22. The richest man in the world, Elon Muskhas become a huge Trump supporter and is doing everything he can to swing the election his way, Silver said. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists, but has moved far to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to explicitly advocate for Trump and provided a new base of money and cultural influence, he added.
    23. Trump was almost killed in an assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first effort was closely tied to a rise in Trump’s favorability ratings, and polls show him significantly more popular and likable than in 2016 or 2020, Silver said.
    24. According to Silver, Harris is on edge and has failed to formulate a clear vision for the country. It would have been a good strategy if the fundamentals favored her, but that is not the case.

    A series of surveys show Harris with a narrow lead over Trump, with a recent Emerson College poll showing her with just a one-point lead among likely voters (49% to 48%). This follows previous polls that showed her with a two-point lead in September and early October, and a four-point lead in August.
    Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Trump regaining a lead over Harris, 50% to 48% among likely voters. This marks a shift from Harris’ previous lead of 50% to 48% in September, after Trump led her from 50% to 49% in August.

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