One of the most memorable rivalry games in college football kicks off Saturday as No. 6 Miami plays host to reeling Florida State this weekend. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game, based on an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida State has won the last three games in this series, beating the Hurricanes 103 to 51, but the models and bookmakers have taken a very different stance this season as the Seminoles have collapsed to a shocking 1-6 record behind that of college football. second-worst scoring offense.

Miami is in an alternate universe this season, marching to a 7-0 record and a top-10 ranking in the thick of the ACC title race thanks to its No. 1 passing attack and No. 2 scoring unit in the country.

What do the analytics suggest when the Seminoles and Hurricanes meet in this ACC clash?

Before that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get an example of how Miami and Florida State stack up in this Week 9 college football matchup.

As expected, the models in this draft give the Hurricanes a big lead over the Seminoles.

SP+ predicts Miami will beat Florida State with a expected score of 39 to 16 and to win the game with an expected gain margin of 22.5 points in victory.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong one 92 percent chance of an outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? Year to date, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) this past weekend.

Miami is one 20.5 points favorite against Florida State, per rules at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (over -110, under -110).

And it set up the moneyline odds for Miami -1700 and for the state of Florida +890 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you must…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of multiple bettors, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Miami gets 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous spread against its rivals.

The other 34 percent of bettors project the Seminoles to win the game in an upset situation, or, more likely, keep the final score under 3 touchdowns.

Miami does 33 points better than opponents are on average in home games this season.

But that margin has closed over the past three games, and so have the Hurricanes 4 points better average at that time.

The state of Florida is 12 points worse than its opponents on the road in 2024.

And that average margin of defeat increased to 16.3 points during the last 3 matchups.

In general, hurricanes are 22.2 points better than their opponents overall this season, while the Seminoles have been 10 points worse than theirs in 2024.

Most other analytical models also favor the Hurricanes with a big win against the Seminoles.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is expected to win the match by an overwhelming margin 91.4 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida State as the expected favorite in the remainder 8.6 percent from sims.

That is expected to be Miami 21.2 points better than Florida State on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

Miami is the first among the ACC teams with one 86.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives the Hurricanes an overall win forecast of 11.8 games this season.

Florida State will win 2.9 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations.

That’s enough for one 0.1 percent chance to qualify for a bowl game this year.

When: Saturday October 26
Time: 7:00 PM Eastern
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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