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    • See the latest path, spaghetti models for storm
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    See the latest path, spaghetti models for storm

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    According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen and is expected to have major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday.

    Rafael was located about 160 miles (260 kilometers) southeast of Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday morning, the NHC said. The storm is moving northwest and a “general northwesterly motion” is expected over the next two days, followed by a west-northwesterly turn in the Gulf of Mexico.

    “According to forecasts, Rafael is expected to pass near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba later today,” NHC forecasters said in an advisory Wednesday morning. “Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.”

    Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds near 100 miles per hour with higher gusts, and rapid strengthening is forecast, the hurricane center said. The storm could have “near major hurricane intensity” before making landfall, and while Rafael is expected to weaken over Cuba, it is expected to strengthen as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Rafael headed to western Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, where authorities opened four emergency shelters but reported no deaths or injuries despite heavy rain.

    According to the NHC, heavy rainfall is expected to impact areas in the western Caribbean, particularly Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to western Cuba, through early Thursday. Precipitation totals between 4 and 6 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 4 inches in areas with higher terrain.

    Hurricanes, tornadoes, snow and heat: Sign up for USA TODAY’s Climate Point newsletter for exclusive weather analysis.

    Is the US in Danger?: Rafael was upgraded to Hurricane; could undergo ‘rapid intensification’.

    Florida Keys could see impacts starting Wednesday

    The hurricane center said tropical storm conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys.

    Precipitation totals of 1 to 3 inches are also expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys, with some tornadoes possible for the area and far southwestern mainland Florida.

    What about the Gulf Coast?

    With uncertainty remaining about the long-term forecasts, the NHC said it is too early to determine what impacts Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. By the end of the week, the swell is expected to spread across much of the Gulf.

    Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle around the weekend, according to AccuWeather, which said the best chance of landfall is along Louisiana’s central coast as a tropical storm. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving over the west coast of Mexico.

    The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf are expected to weaken the hurricane by the time it approaches the U.S. mainland. “This will not be a situation where there is a strengthening major hurricane making landfall in the US, but rather something that is less intense in terms of wind intensity,” AccuWeather’s forecast said.

    Hurricane Rafael path tracker

    This forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    Spaghetti models of Hurricane Rafael

    Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

    Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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