BYU is 1-0 and prepares for its first road game of the season at SMU. The Mustangs opened as double-digit favorites over the Cougars. SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, confirmed the BYU-SMU prediction. SP+ gives BYU a 24% chance of winning with a projected score of 35-24 in favor of the Mustangs.

The SP+ projection was nearly identical to the betting line. The Cougars opened as 11.5-point underdogs and the over/under was set at 55. So the implied final score according to oddsmakers would be 35-24.

FPI, ESPN’s official prediction algorithm, gives BYU a 21% chance of pulling off an upset.

For BYU, pulling off the upset has to start on the defensive side of the football. The Mustangs will test BYU’s defense. SMU is currently on a nine-game home winning streak. In those nine games, the Mustangs are averaging an astonishing 53.9 points per game.

On the bright side, the Mustangs haven’t really had a defense of BYU’s caliber in that time. Here were the defensive efficiency stats for those nine teams:

Opponent – Points scored – FEI Defensive Efficiency Ranking

1. Houston Christian – 59 Points – Unranked (FCS Opponent)
2. Navy – 59 points – 78th
3. North Texas – 45 points – 132nd
4. Tulsa – 69 points – 123rd
5. Charlotte – 34 points – 100th
6. Prairie View A&M – 69 points – Unranked (FCS opponent)
7. Louisiana Tech – 38 points – 129th
8. Memphis – 34 points – 99th
9. Houston – 77 points – 107th

The Mustangs have not faced a defense in the FEI top 75 during that nine-match winning streak. BYU’s defense has really struggled at times in 2023. Still, the Cougars are ranked 51st in the FEI defensive rankings.