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    • Spaghetti models, prediction path, impact
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    Spaghetti models, prediction path, impact

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Are you in a hurry? This is what happens in less than a minute with Hurricane Milton.

    Hurricane Milton continues to gain strength over the Gulf of Mexico as it focuses on Florida, according to a special advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

    At 7 a.m., forecasters issued a special update, saying Milton is now a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

    Hurricane watches and storm surge watches have now been expanded for parts of Florida ahead of what is expected to be a major hurricane. Devastating impacts are forecast for Florida, from life-threatening storm surges, flooding rain and damaging winds.

    ➤ Spaghetti Models for Hurricane Milton

    ➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather conditions by location

    In Florida, a state of emergency has been declared for 51 of 67 counties, ahead of Milton, which focuses on the state’s west coast. Milton is expected to make landfall on Wednesday. Several provinces have announced that schools will be closed.

    “Despite the uncertainty about exactly how Milton will develop, there is high confidence that a destructive wave will hit Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst wave in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut. chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    ➤ Hurricane Milton could bring the worst wave in a century to Tampa, southwest Florida

    Expected impacts include “devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging winds, pounding surf and tornadoes,” according to AccuWeather.

    “Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening hazards,” said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

    “This includes extreme storm surge of 10 to 15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, damaging winds and major flooding in one of Florida’s most densely populated areas, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando .

    “Milton could be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians,” Porter said.

    Before making landfall in Florida, Milton will have ample time to quickly strengthen over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Hurricane Milton: What You Need to Know

    • Location: 750 miles west-southwest of Tampa
    • Maximum sustained wind: 120 km/h
    • Movement: east-southeast at 8 mph
    • Busy: 954mb
    • Next advice: 8 hours

    ➤ WeatherTiger: Milton could bring the worst wave in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida

    At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 north and longitude 92.6 west.

    Milton is moving east-southeast at a speed of 8 miles per hour. An east-to-east-southeast movement is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Milton is forecast to pass near or just north of the Yucatán Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are now near 200 km/h, with higher gusts. Milton is expected to intensify quickly.

    Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 kilometers).

    Watches, warnings issued across Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton

    Here are the latest watches and warnings for areas threatened by Hurricane Milton:

    Hurricane Warning:

    • Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, from Celestun to Rio Lagartos

    Hurricane Warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the expected first appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed urgently.

    Hurricane Watching:

    • Florida Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay
    • Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
    • Dry Tortugas

    Hurricane Watching: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    What is storm surge? Pictures explain the deadly weather event

    Storm Surge Warning:

    Storm Surge Warning: A storm surge warning means there is a life-threatening risk of flooding in the indicated locations due to rising water moving inland from the coastline. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons in these areas should take all necessary measures to protect life and property from rising waters and the possibility of other hazardous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

    Storm surge watch:

    • Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

    Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding at the indicated locations over the next 48 hours as rising waters move inland from the coastline.

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    • Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, from Rio Lagartos to Cancun

    Tropical Storm Warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    Tropical Storm Watch:

    • Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
    • Florida Gulf Coast north from the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass
    • Lower, Middle and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

    Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 60 to 120 km/h are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone.

    Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

    ➤ Track Hurricane Milton

    Excessive rainfall forecast

    Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Milton

    1. Hurricane conditions are expected in parts of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along parts of the coast of the northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula.
    2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for parts of the west coast of the Florida peninsula beginning Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula and residents of that area should heed any advice from local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
    3. Areas of heavy rainfall will hit parts of Florida well before Milton today, with heavy rainfall more directly associated with the system expected later Tuesday through Wednesday evening. This rainfall brings the risk of significant flooding, urban and regional flooding, along with the possibility of moderate to major river flooding.

    Tracker: View the latest forecast path for Hurricane Milton

    Current forecast: Where will Hurricane Milton go and how strong could it become?

    • From 5am EDT: 100 km/h
    • 12 hours: 185 km/h
    • 24 hours: 130 km/h
    • 36 hours: 235 km/h
    • 48 hours: 235 km/h
    • 60 hours: 125 km/h
    • 72 hours: 85 km/h
    • 96 hours: 65 km/h
    • 120 hours: 50 km/h

    What impact could Hurricane Milton have and what areas could be affected?

    “Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, posing a variety of life-threatening hazards,” Porter warned. “This includes extreme storm surge of 10 to 15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, damaging winds and major flooding in one of Florida’s most densely populated areas, the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando .”

    The storm is expected to bring several inches of rain to the Sunshine State, with a wide area of ​​8 to 12 inches forecast across central and northeastern Florida, including the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, Orlando and Jacksonville. The AccuWeather Local StormMax for rainfall is an incredible 30 centimeters.

    “Strong, damaging winds in excess of 100 mph, reaching an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 165 mph.”

    • Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning today or tonight, while tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area of ​​Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
    • Storm surge: A storm surge will raise water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas with onshore winds. Near the coast the wave will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising water moving inland from the coastline. The water may reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
      • Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
      • Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
      • Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
      • Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
      • Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
      • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
      • Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
    • Rainfall: Rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals of up to 15 inches, are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of significant flooding, urban and regional flooding, along with the possibility of moderate to major river flooding.

    ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

    • Surfing: System-generated swells are impacting the southwestern Gulf of Mexico coast. These waves are expected to spread north and east along much of the Gulf Coast over the next two days, likely creating life-threatening surf and current conditions.

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    Interactive map: What tropical storms and hurricanes have hit your area in the past?

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And look here for our special subscription offers.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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