As we’ve done in the past, here are the keys and my prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to finish on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 1 season opener against the Atlanta Falcons.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers will win if…

1. Pittsburgh’s Front Seven wins the day

The Falcons want to run the ball with their top-ten pick Bijan Robinson in his second season. They don’t want to just put the game in the hands of Kirk Cousins ​​in his first game back from a torn Achilles against the Steelers’ pass rush.

Pittsburgh’s front seven, their d-line and linebackers, are the strength of their entire team. So they have to play like it. If they can win the line of scrimmage and make Atlanta one-dimensional and off-schedule, Cousins ​​is going to have a long day. Their passing game will be more open and powerful than it was last year, but it’s not enough to carry Atlanta against this defense.

2. George Pickens is a big man on campus

I like the “big man” matchups at receiver and corner in this one. On defense for the Steelers, CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Drake London. But offensively, the one I want to highlight is WR George Pickens vs. CB AJ Terrell. Both are big and strong and excellent at what they do. Terrell is one of the most underrated corners in the league.

The Steelers’ clear No. 1 option, Pickens needs to make big plays in the passing game. That could be winning vertically and combat catches, his specialty, but also YAC and winning at all levels of the field. Assuming Justin Fields starts, he’ll be watching him a lot. The two had a strong connection in training camp when Russell Wilson was sidelined with his first calf injury.

3. It’s a Justin Fields Homecoming

From Atlanta, it will hopefully be a homecoming for Justin Fields. A big test from the start, while the team’s intention was to start Fields on the bench and use him situationally. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Fields is a big threat with his legs and Pittsburgh should lean on that in this game with read-options, more RPOs and designed QB runs.

He made strides as a passer in training camp, but he needs to show more on the field. He can’t let veteran safety Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons tempt him into throwing an ugly interception. Fields needs to take care of the ball and stop letting passes go to the line of scrimmage.

He can do all those things and if he does, there’s a chance he won’t give up his starting job. What a chance to shine.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. Sloppy Steelers comeback

Always worried about ugly football to start the year, especially for a Pittsburgh team that comes out of Week 1 with new, young, moving pieces on offense. Starts with the snap. There were too many bad exchanges and too much miscommunication in preseason. That can be forgiven in August, not September.

Additionally, tackles cannot be penalized for the illegal formation penalties that the NFL is tough on. The defense must communicate well and not mess up assignments, and there can be no special team fumbles that cost this team yards and points. Week 1 is more about taking care of your own business than outplaying your opponent. The fewest mistakes win the opener.

2. Keeanu Benton is glued to the bench

Benton looked like a star in the preseason and is entering his second year as the starter. He’s going to play. But the Falcons will have an 11-man (three-receiver) look that new OC Zac Robinson, formerly of the LA Rams, brings with him. That means Pittsburgh will have a heavy load in their 2-4-5 nickel. Normally that would mean Cam Heyward and Larry Ogunjobi would eat up a lot of those snaps, but the Steelers need to expect Benton to rotate it.

I’m not overly concerned about Benton being forgotten, but there were times last year where he was way underplayed and didn’t see enough action in sub-packages. I want to be able to check the box and make sure he gets about a third of the nickel snaps this season.

3. O-Line can’t handle the Falcons’ creative rush looks

Pittsburgh has two offensive linemen making their first career starts, along with Broderick Jones in his second season. On the road against a new defense, the team doesn’t have much tape. What we to have Atlanta has followed most of the league in creative, high-pressure looks on third down. Dual three-techs to test the guard’s edges and force tackles to win 1-on-1. Or 3×1 formations with three rushers on one side, running plays and twists off. This o-line needs to be ready.

Prediction

Steelers: 23
Falcons: 17