Ah, Decision Day, what a glorious event. For some, this is the start of a win-or-go-home journey to the MLS Cup; for others it is the unceremonious end to a journey that will have to wait at least another year. Hearts are broken, hands are frozen and the playoff field has finally been chosen. Huzzah!

For Minnesota United, the only thing at stake on this year’s Decision Day is playoff seeding. I went to the trouble of doing the calculations (so much fun) and figuring out every possible finishing position the Loons could take this year. I think I’ve covered all the best and worst possible outcomes we could see on this most decisive day; Read on so you know what to look out for.

This little part of the Western Conference is all I really care about this weekend. Sure, the Loons’ first opponent will be higher in the table if they avoid getting into the Wild Card match, but we’ll get to that later – one thing at a time! For now, all you need to know is that the club cannot finish outside this window. In fact, none of these teams can escape this small group, with a five-point lead between fourth and fifth and a seven-point lead between ninth and tenth.

Your Loons could finish anywhere from fifth to eighth in the Western Conference. I’ve divided this little guide into three categories, with two subcategories in each to help paint the full picture. Call me Van Gogh if you want, I won’t fight you. The first category is the club’s result on Saturday. Based on whether MNUFC wins/loses/draws, we can then check the second category: the best and worst case scenario results across the league.

• Loons win
  • Finish the season on 52 points (one less than the club record of 53, set in 2019)
  • Best case: fifth place
    • If both Houston and Colorado lose or draw, the Loons would skip them both in the standings to take fifth place, setting up a first-round matchup with the number four seed (Seattle or RSL, depending on the results on Decision Day for each).
  • Worst case: seventh place
    • If Colorado and Houston both win, the Loons would retain seventh place and set up a first-round matchup with the number two seed (which would be LAFC, unless the Galaxy lose and LAFC win by a margin big enough to beat them beat on goal difference).
• Loons tie
  • Finish the season on 50 points
  • Best case: seventh place
    • A loss, draw or win by one goal for Vancouver would keep them behind MNUFC.
  • Worst case: eighth place
    • The Loons would fall behind Vancouver in eighth place if the Caps can overcome a few different tiebreakers. First they would have to win their own match, leveling MNUFC on 50 points. Then they would also be tied in terms of matches won. The second tiebreaker is goal difference, where the Loons currently have a two-goal lead. If the Caps win by three, they will jump to seventh place. If they win by two, they still need to score at least four goals to beat the Loons in the third tiebreaker, goals ahead. Basically, we don’t want Vancouver to win, okay?
• Losing wages
  • Finish the season on 49 points
  • Best case: seventh place
    • A loss in Vancouver would allow the Loons to retain seventh place.
  • Worst case: eighth place
    • The Loons would slide into eighth place if Vancouver beats RSL. Even if Portland wins and keeps MNUFC tied at 49 points, the Black and Blue have the edge in wins, the first tie-breaker.

Eighth place means Portland would be coming to Minnesota for the Wild Card Match, that’s for sure. In seventh place, the Loons would have to face one of the teams from LA, probably LAFC. The fifth or sixth place would set up a date with RSL or Seattle, depending on their respective Decision Day results. That means your Loons will face one of Portland, LAFC, LA Galaxy, RSL or Seattle to begin their playoff journey.

So basically you’re going to have to find a way to watch at least four games at the same time this Saturday. Every Western Conference game kicks off at 8 p.m., so turn on every screen you own and pay close attention to the three games below. If you have extra space, you can simply turn on any Western Conference match except FC Dallas vs. Sporting Kansas City. They’re just playing for fun at this point; sorry guys.

• Houston Dynamo FC vs LA Galaxy
• Austin FC vs. Colorado Rapids
• Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC

All the playoff spots in the West have already been secured, but with so much still up in the air surrounding seeding and first-round matches, this weekend is definitely going to be big. Rest this week, fans; There will be a lot to do this Saturday at eight o’clock.