Well folks, the NFL trade deadline came and went, and each team’s Super Bowl odds changed…not one iota.

It’s not like nothing happened. Tuesday was a busy deadline day, with the bell tolling as the last in NFL history. But historically, the NFL trade deadline has always been a bit of a mess. Some of the biggest trade news this year – Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins – came well before the final bell, with the odds evenly stacked.

Looking through the results, the real storyline shows that the Haves get more and the Have-nots strengthen for next year. Deadline day may not have changed the odds on the NFL futures, but Week 9’s action certainly has. The Kansas City Chiefs (+400) are still at the top, but the level below has seen some shifts since last week, with the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills moving up and the San Francisco 49ers continuing their downward spiral.

Let’s take a look at the betting board.

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Super Bowl 2025 Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs still sit atop the Super Bowl odds board at +400 to win it all. Their acquisition of Hopkins and subsequent Week 9 overtime win over the Buccaneers only cemented that status. The game was typical Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes appeared to avoid a serious injury, Travis Kelce was activated, Hopkins was trolling and a coin toss in overtime sealed the deal. Before that win The Athletics has done some research on the Chiefs’ chances of remaining undefeated. While the chances of that happening are slim, a Super Bowl appearance seems almost inevitable. Their next big test should be in two weeks when they take on the Buffalo Bills in New York.

But the Chiefs have a new top challenger for the crown: the Detroit Lions (+500). Ever heard of “Daddy Dan Campbell”? After earning a crucial win over NFC North rivals the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, he placed a replacement for Aidan Hutchinson in one of the top edges of the trading block, Za’Darius Smith. Last week in the Super Bowl, the Lions were tied with the Baltimore Ravens at +650. They rose after Week 9 and now find themselves within striking distance of the undefeated Chiefs. Next up is a test against the Houston Texans on Sunday, and then there should be two easier games on deck (vs. Jacksonville and at Indianapolis).

Perhaps the most promising factor for the Lions? Their path to victory in the NFC seems clearer than any path for AFC contenders not named the Chiefs.

The Ravens (+650) have the same odds as last week. Baltimore can be a mind-boggling team to watch. Unlike the Chiefs, who methodically win close games, the Ravens can be feast or famine. Their 0-2 start was a famine, as was their Week 8 loss to the 2-7 Cleveland Browns. But that Browns game was more about a revitalized Cleveland team with Jameis Winston under center than any indication that the Ravens are slipping. They came back in Week 9 to beat the Denver Broncos 41-10.

With Lamar Jackson favored to win back-to-back MVPs, the Ravens were already scary before they added Diontae Johnson to their ranks.

We are not done with AFC candidates yet. The Bills are +800 this week, improved from last week’s +1000 odds. They jumped above the 49ers to take fourth place in the race to win the Super Bowl, and Josh Allen remains a favorite to win MVP. A Week 9 loss to their top division rivals, the Miami Dolphins (who had Tua Tagovailoa), gave them a boost. On the horizon, however, are several challenges: the Chiefs in Week 11 and after a bye, they play back-to-back against the 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Lions.

The next level of favorites consists of the 49ers (+1000), Philadelphia Eagles (+1200), Minnesota Vikings (+1800), Houston Texans (+2000), Green Bay Packers (+2000) and Washington Commanders (+2200). Deadline day did not favor the Packers and Vikings, who now have a strengthened Lions team looming.

We may see the Commanders’ odds increase, as well as those of the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2800). The Commanders’ acquisition of Marshon Lattimore from the New Orleans Saints showed that Washington is serious about making a run for the playoffs this season. The Steelers got receiver Mike Williams and pass rusher Preston Smith, boosting their strength to make a run for the top of the AFC North.

I’m watching this space as both teams face each other in a big game this weekend.

(Photo by Amon-Ra St. Brown: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)