Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the favorite to win reelection in November against his Democratic rival Colin Allred, although some polls suggest the race could be tight.

Forecasters predict the Republican incumbent will defeat Allred in the Nov. 5 election as the congressman aims to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.

Texas, along with Florida, has been identified by Democrats as a potential player for the party in both the statewide and presidential elections next week. If Allred were to flip Cruz’s Senate seat, it would play a major role in helping Democrats maintain control of the Senate, where they have a 51-49 majority.

Prediction and polling aggregator website 538 has Cruz with an average lead of 3.4 points over his Democratic challenger. The national average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill shows Cruz with a 3.1-point lead, with the forecaster giving the Republican a 76 percent chance of victory on November 5.

A recent internal survey conducted by Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies for Allred found the candidates tied at 46 percent. The poll was conducted from October 18 to 23 among 800 likely voters and has no margin of error.

Newsweek has reached out to Cruz and Allred’s campaign teams via email for comment.

Allred cited the GBAO poll results in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, just over a week before the Texas election.

“We started this campaign seven points behind, and thanks to our grassroots efforts the race is now level,” said Allred. “With eight days to go, we are in the fourth quarter and there are no more timeouts.”

Other recent research has shown Cruz leading Allred in the race for the Texas Senate seat.

An Activote poll of 400 likely voters showed Cruz with a 5-point lead over Allred (52 percent to 47 percent). The survey was conducted between October 21 and 27, with results having a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

A New York TimesA Siena College survey of 1,180 likely voters from Oct. 23 to 26 found Cruz with a four-point lead over Allred (50 percent to 46 percent). The survey was conducted from October 23 to 26, with the results having a margin of error of about 3 percentage points anyway.

Both surveys show Cruz has a larger lead over Allred compared to what the Republican gained in the 2018 race against Beto O’Rourke. Cruz defeated the former Democratic congressman by 2.6 points in what was a fiercely competitive and at the time the most expensive Senate race in history.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows the race between Cruz and Allred is tighter. The poll of 815 likely voters showed Cruz with a one-point lead over Allred (48 percent to 47 percent). Cruz’s support fell 1 point, while Allred’s support rose 2 points compared to a previous survey in September.

“Allred’s brand awareness has improved since last month; 18 percent had never heard of him in early September, down to 15 percent at the end of September and to 10 percent this month,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement .

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Oct. 18-21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Race to the White House forecasters give Cruz a 74 percent chance of winning reelection in November.