MIAMI – As tropical activity in the Atlantic subsides, attention is shifting back to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where there are increasing signs of atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of the next named storm, possibly sometime next week.

The National Hurricane Center is now officially monitoring the area for tropical development. The agency currently gives an average chance of development within the next seven days. Further development could occur after seven days, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

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The growing concern is related to a phenomenon known as the Central American cyclone. These wind turbines have historically contributed to the formation of tropical storms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in early spring or fall.

Central American gyre.

(FOX Weather)

The gyre is a vast area of ​​low pressure that feeds on moisture flowing in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a producer of heavy rainfall with effects that extend for hundreds of kilometers, posing threats of torrential rains, flooding, and landslides to more than a dozen countries in and around Central America.

WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE?

Organized low pressure areas can develop within the large gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. And current water temperatures in the Caribbean are close to last season’s record warm levels.

Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean.

(FOX Weather)

At both the beginning and end of the hurricane season, there is a greatest chance that a tropical disturbance will break away from Central America and form a tropical entity in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Bay of Campeche, or the western Caribbean Sea.

Possible development area for the next 10 days.

(FOX Weather)

“You can get showers and storms, and some of the energy that comes out of that can spin off into something that maybe develops in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Caribbean,” said Marissa Torres, a meteorologist with FOX Weather.

Indeed, many computer model predictions show that large amounts of moisture from the Pacific Ocean will flow over Central America and reach the Caribbean Sea sometime next week, possibly forming a vortex.

Meanwhile, early indications are that a dip in the jet stream over the central U.S. will move northward, removing a blocking factor that prevents storms from entering the Gulf of Mexico and also allows the vortex to drift northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The possible weather pattern for Central America, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico next week.

(FOX Weather)

“So if we see that broad circulation and if it’s moving maybe into the southern Gulf of Mexico or at least turning a little bit further north, then that opens up a window for potential (tropical) development,” FOX Weather meteorologist Stephen Morgan said. “And assuming we don’t have any significant systems moving off land into the Gulf of Mexico — particularly fronts that would push this thing away — there’s going to be a Gulf of Mexico element in play.”

While storm formation is never guaranteed, the pattern suggests an active rainy period for the Caribbean, parts of Mexico and likely southern Florida late next week, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Regardless of whether or not individual storms develop tropically, a large plume of tropical moisture will be in the area late next week, and it is likely to continue.

Long-term rainfall forecast for the Caribbean.

(FOX Weather)

“(When) you look at the Bay of Campeche, you look at the water temperatures — there are a lot of other elements that are still very conducive to development,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Michael Estime. “We’ll have to wait and see what happens with the eyre … something we’ll definitely be monitoring over the next few days.”

How often does the tornado cause tropical problems?

On average, the Central American gyre produces a tropical cyclone about once every two years. Some small cyclones develop into full-fledged hurricanes when conditions permit.

Because they form hotspots in the Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, many of these species pose a threat to the southeast coast.

Tropical Storm Amanda (2020), Tropical Storm Cristobal (2020), Hurricane Michael (2018), Tropical Storm Andrea (2013), and Hurricane Ida (2009) are all examples of areas of disturbed weather that have developed within the Central American Gyre.

Tropical cyclones influenced by the Central American gyre.

(FOX Weather)

Hurricane Michael struck the Florida Panhandle in 2018 as a Category 5 hurricane after spending a week in the vortex off the coast of Central America.

Tropical cyclones directly influenced by the Central American Gyre typically form early or late in the season and are generally weaker when they impact the U.S. This is due to the presence of inhibiting factors such as cooler water temperatures and hostile winds at higher altitudes.