AIt is believed that approximately 1 million soldiers were killed or injured in Russia’s war in Ukraine. In addition to the massive Ukrainian civilian and military toll, average Russian casualties reportedly rose to a new high of more than 1,200 soldiers per day in September. Russia has four times as many troops, but a war described by its own fighters as a “meat grinder” is rapidly shrinking its ranks, and using conscripts comes at a political cost. By some estimates, seven times more Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion than Soviet troops have died in Afghanistan in ten years.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of Ukraine and now ambassador to Britain, recently noted that in war “math is the only thing that works.” Despite all of Moscow’s advantages, the country is increasingly looking abroad for weapons, equipment and other resources, as well as fighters and workers, to supply its conflict.

A striking confirmation came with a statement from South Korean intelligence that 1,500 North Korean special forces are on their way to Ukraine. Some suspect they are more likely to support Russian forces than to fight, not least given the communications and other problems, or that they may be there to learn more about drone warfare. Their elite status is likely more indicative of perceived political reliability than how they will be used. Pyongyang has already sent workers and weapons. Nevertheless, this is an important step in the relationship. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, has said he believes a total of 10,000 soldiers could be sent.

Russia needs outsiders because its pro-natalist policies have failed to halt population decline; the average age is now 40 years. The country has long relied on migrant workers to fill the gap, but the pandemic has driven down numbers. Last year there was a shortage of 4.8 million employees. Perhaps a million young Russians have left because of the war, and the army is competing with the factories that supply it.

Central Asia has historically supplied the most migrant workers. But in the wake of the terror attack on Crocus City Hall in March, for which Tajik nationals were convicted, growing xenophobia has led to a crackdown by authorities and deterred others from seeking work there. Some Central Asian countries also warned their citizens that they would be punished for fighting for Russia.

Russia is looking further and further away. Some migrants are lured into military service for pay or with the promise of quick citizenship. Others are tricked or forced to join. Indian and Nepalese workers who thought they would be working in Russia, Germany or Dubai have found themselves fighting on the front lines of Ukraine. About 200 women were recruited from Uganda, Sierra Leone and other African countries to work assembling attack drones in Tatarstan, AP reported this month, where they were exposed to caustic chemicals.

While Russia pretends to be a friend of the developing world, it relies on expendable fighters and cheap labor from impoverished countries. President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to incorporate the territory into a greater Russia is supported by foreign personnel and workers. That speaks less to the strength of the burgeoning alliances, alarming as they are, and more to the fundamental domestic problems his country faced even before he launched the invasion that has devastated Ukraine and killed so many Russian citizens.

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