SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more and graph…The first two weekends of November have proven to be a rich jumping off point for movies – so why did Hollywood avoid booking tentpoles? It was only two years ago that the month had its best opening ever on November 11th Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3 million). It’s the doom and gloom of the election, right? Because maybe Trump wins and Harris loses? That’s why Sony/Miramax is crying Here was the only big movie last weekend?

Sources tell me they weren’t necessarily afraid of the outcome of the election, despite many around me in California staying home last Wednesday, but rather the spike in TV spots. Apparently the elections have caused interest rates to rise.

People go to the movies no matter who wins – if there’s something great to see. Pre-election weekend in 2016, when Trump would ultimately win, Doctor Strange led the box office with a stellar opening of $85 million. Weekend after the elections, Doctor Strange continued its run at No. 1 with a second weekend of $42.9 million, but Paramount’s sci-fi drama Denis Villeneuve, Arrival, was one of two major studio-wide entries and over-indexed with a $24 million opening, followed by Universal’s Almost Christmas which grossed $15.1 million.

What do we have this weekend? Sony’s third frame Venom: The Last Dance still ahead $14 millionand two modest budget films, A24s Heretic of $10.5 million and Lionsgate/Kingdom Stories The best Christmas parade ever with round $10 milliongive or take. While both outperformed their high single-digit NRG tracking estimates, they are about at the level that was predicted. While both titles could break even or more for both distributors by the end of the game, they’re still just shy of the onslaught of Amazon/MGM’s Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans Christmas movie. Red, and the perfect storm troika of Bad, Gladiator II And Moana II.

I’ve written it over, and I’ll write it again: Post-Covid, we live in a market where a studio either puts more effort into promoting a movie they believe in and hits a home run, or spends too little so they cut their margins can increase and reap wealth. post-theatrical. Studio executives are clamoring for diversity in offerings across all demos and releasing films of all budgets, but if they don’t produce titles that can create a spark, they’ll simply surrender to streaming. The market demands more doubling and a consistent supply of it. Like many faith-based films, The best Christmas parade ever receives a solid A CinemaScore, 88% positive on PostTrak among general audiences and 90% among kids under 12. Heretic is the ultimate A24 film, a hit with critics with a 93% Certified Fresh and a C+ CinemaScore and a 70% positive PostTrak, an indicator that is dividing audiences and sparking debate (Ari Aster’s Midsummer earned a C+ while Heir, a major-grossing title of $44 million for the New York-based label earned a D+).

Why are both titles no longer available? Hugh Grant hasn’t been a solo draw since the late 1990s to early aughts, despite his witty charms. One source claimed to me that this is what the opening was for Heretic is in the wheelhouse of his early low double-digit openings, ala Two weeks notice ($14 million), Mickey blue eyes ($10.1 million) and The Diary of Bridget Jones ($10.7 million, which came in at an impressive 1,611 in its opening weekend). All these figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Best Christmas parade ever was built at a cost of less than $10 million net, and has a cast that makes it look like a TV movie. No one runs to the cinema, but Christmas films remain in the home market for a lifetime. The general rule of thumb lately is that a movie with Christmas in the title should have at least 3x, possibly 4x multiple box office appearances. Best Christmas ParadeThe film’s opening here isn’t that far removed from recent holiday films, i.e. Universal’s Emilia Clarke-Henry Golding Last Christmas ($11.4 million, eventually $35 million domestic) and even R-rated stuff like the Seth Rogen, Anthony Mackie, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The night beforewhich recorded $9.88 million and ended at $43 million.

Heretic attracted 55% men with 65% of the audience aged 18-34, and the largest demo was 25-34 at 40%. Diversity demonstrations were 52% White, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 12% Asian, and 5% Native American/Other. Dolby screens account for 24% of the gross. The Scott Beck and Bryan Woods-directed/written film is playing best in the West, Mountain and South Central regions, with AMC Burbank being the top-grossing venue so far this weekend with $27,000.

Best Christmas parade ever attracted 65% women, 10% of the audience between 13-17 years old, 9% of the audience between 18-24 years old, 15% of the audience between 25-34 years old and 66% of the audience 35+ years old with the largest demo is the faith-based audience of over 55 people at 40%. Diversity demonstrations are 59% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, 8% Asian, and 6% Native American/Other. Christmas parade is watched by the center of the country with the top theater, Cinemark Yuba City in California, with about $13,000 to date.

Other things:

NEON’s wide breakthrough from Sean Baker’s Anora will be the filmmaker’s highest-grossing film ever at the domestic box office by Sunday in 1,104 theaters, surpassing his 2017 drama by $7.2 million The Florida Project which ended at $5.9 million. Anora is in 7th place in its fourth weekend with $2.5 million+40%. Very good dollars in LA, NYC, San Francisco, DC, Orlando and Boston, among others.

Crunchyrolls Overlord: The Holy Kingdom made $555K on Friday from 621 locations en route to $1.1 million opening, outside the top 10. I only hear good numbers in NYC, San Diego, San Antonio, LA, Seattle and Dallas. The Naoyuki Itô-directed anime centers on Momonga, now known as the Sorcerer King Ains Ooal Gown, who gathers the Sorcerer Kingdom and its undead army to join the fight alongside the Sacred Kingdom and the Slane Theocracy in hopes of becoming the Demon Emperor to defeat Jaldabaoth.

More….

FRIDAY PM: At this point, the proceeds from a slow weekend go to Sony Venom: The Last Dance who is looking at a number 1 take-around $14 million for the three days following a $3.6 million Friday at 3,905 locations. That’s the first time ever that a Poison film has held the top spot at the box office for three weekends in a row, and it opened to the lowest in the franchise with $51 million. Previously, 2018 Poison was No. 1 two weekends in a row. As sources said last weekend about the problems films faced after the World Series: “There’s nothing else out there.” The running total for the Tom Hardy starrer is Kelly Marcel, directed by Threequel $112.8 million of EOD Sunday.

In second place is A24’s horror film Hugh Grant Heretic who looks around $5 million today, including last night’s $1.2 million for what a $11 million – $12 million opening in 3,221 theaters. That’s at the high end of where the exhibit predicted the movie would be. The photo had its world premiere at TIFF and continued in AFI. A24 earned the film negative from the picture’s producers for approximately $14 million – $15 million and sold abroad while remaining domestic.

Poison 3 has Imax and PLFs while Heretic has Dolby rooms.

Third place goes to Lionsgate and Kingdom Story’s The best Christmas parade ever what is being looked at $4.8 million to $5.4 million today (including previews of $2.8 million) for a $8.5 million – $12 million opening at 3,020. The film was shot for a net production cost of $10 million, with Canadian tax credits. A small portion of foreign sales cover this largely domestically driven piece of intellectual property. Lionsgate is hoping for an end game of $20 million to $25 million at the domestic box office. If the film hits $10 million, it will be Lionsgate’s second-highest opening YTD after that Strangers – Chapter 1 which debuted in May at $11.8 million and ended at $35.2 million US/Canada.

DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s seventh weekend The wild robot at 3,051 locations $5 million-33% after one $1.25 million Friday for a running total by Sunday of $129.2 million.

The fifth is Paramount’s fourth weekend Smile 2 at 2,822 locations for a Friday of $1.4 million3 days of $4.7 million-30% for one $60.2 million Come EOD on Sunday.

Keep in mind that with schools out on Monday, Veterans Day, all of these films will see a lagniappe at the box office.

FRIDAY AM: A24s Heretic, the R-rated horror film of A quiet place writers Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, began his journey this weekend with $1.2 million in previews last night that started at 7 p.m. That figure doesn’t include the Salt Lake City sneaks that took place recently.

HereticA24’s Thursday issue is $100,000 shy of A24’s Ari Aster horror photo Heir did so in the summer of 2018, but above the $1 million that Universal’s horror film Radio Silence earned Abigail did and the $725K that Lionsgate/Blumhouse made Imaginary taken; Abigail opened in April to $10.2 million Imaginary did $9.9 million in March.

Heretic is expected to open $10 million – $12 million and could steal the number 1 spot from Sony Venom: The Last Dancewhich is entering its third frame.

Starring Hugh Grant Heretic has been certified 94% fresh by critics and received 3 stars from audiences last night. A24 was delivered to your home in the film.

Lionsgate/Kingdom Stories also started last night The best Christmas parade ever, what did $500K yesterday of previews that started at 4 p.m. All in with early access sneaks, counts the Dallas Jenkins film recording of Barbara Robinson’s bestseller $2.8 millionafter a gross profit $2.3 million in one day with early sneaks. NRG is following up on the film $6 million – $8 millionwith the exhibition believing this number to be higher.

Best Christmas parade ever is 85% new with critics, 99% on the popcorn meter, 4 1/2 stars with general audiences on PostTrak, 5 stars with parents and 5 stars with kids under 12.

The rest of the week:

1.) Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 4,131 theaters, Thu $1.6M (-3%), wk $34.6 millionTotal $98.6 million/World Cup 2
As we told you before, the Kelly Marcel-directed Tom Hardy’s Threequel surpasses $100 million today.

2.) Wild robot (Uni/DWA) 3,237 (-190) theaters Thu $481K (+5%), week $10.3 millionTotal $124.3 million/Wk 6

3.) Smile 2 (Par) 3,235 (-389) theaters, Thu $610,000 (-2%), week $9.6 millionTotal $55.5 million/Wk 3

4.) Conclave (Foc) 1,796 (+43) theaters, Thu $542K (-3%) week $7.46 million Total $17.3 million/ week 2

5.) Here (Sony/Miramax) 2,647 theaters, Thu $411K (-9%) week $7 million/Wk 1