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    • The new Caribbean storm poses a threat to Gulf Coast states
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    The new Caribbean storm poses a threat to Gulf Coast states

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    A November surprise?

    As Americans turn their attention to Tuesday’s elections, weather experts are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system in the western Caribbean that will impact the U.S. later this week, but to what extent remains uncertain.

    The system, now known as potential Tropical Cyclone 18, prompted the governments of the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to issue a hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning, respectively, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. Cuba is also expected to be affected.

    AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said 18 could become a tropical storm the next day, which would be named Rafael, and could gain hurricane status if it drifts west of Jamaica instead of flattening out over the next few days to be found.

    Regardless, he expects Rafael will eventually be felt somewhere along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and he urged residents in those areas to be alert.

    “Even if it encounters cooler water and wind shear and starts to lose intensity as it moves north, you’re still talking about a significant wind and rain event,” Pydynowski told USA TODAY. “There will still be impacts even if it is a tropical storm.”

    The National Hurricane Center said in its 10 p.m. ET advisory on Sunday that the system is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and southern and western parts of Cuba, through midweek. Floods and mudslides are also possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

    Heavy rain could then spread northward into Florida and other areas of the southeastern U.S., according to the hurricane center. Forecasters advised residents of Cuba and the Florida Keys to keep an eye on the system into the week.

    A very damaging hurricane season

    Those are worrying words in a busy hurricane season that has seen massive destruction from the likes of Beryl, Helene and Milton, among other devastating storms. The US has been hit by five hurricanes this season, killing at least 300 people and causing about $130 billion in economic losses.

    Only four recorded hurricanes have made landfall on the US mainland in the penultimate month of the calendar, but the most recent – ​​Nicole – hit Florida just two years ago. The season runs until November 30.

    Much is still unknown about the current system, its trajectory and the chances of intensification later this week. The NHC said an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was gathering more information on Sunday.

    But Pydynowski pointed out that conditions for strengthening are favorable in the Caribbean, including low wind shear and slightly above-average temperatures in the mid-80s.

    The big question for the U.S. is what happens after the storm moves north of western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly by Wednesday. It could initially intensify before encountering strong wind shear and slightly cooler water as it gets closer to the U.S. bottom, which should weaken it.

    “It’s tough to reach hurricane status and hit the central Gulf Coast this time of year, but it can certainly happen,” Pydynowski said. “The water is still in the upper 70s, it’s still warm. Especially if the storm is moving quickly so it doesn’t spend much time in cooler water.”

    For residents of the southeastern coast, especially in hurricane-ravaged Florida, it would be much better if the storm subsides and cooler waters prevail.

    Signs of trouble still lurk

    The hurricane center said a trough of low pressure near the southern Bahamas has brought showers and thunderstorms but will likely be absorbed by the developing storm that could become Rafael late Monday.

    But there are still signs of further activity in the northern Caribbean and perhaps in the far southwest Atlantic Ocean around the Bahamas, Pydynowski said, underscoring that the season doesn’t end for nearly four weeks.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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