Political violence has reached alarming levels in the US in recent years.

The January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, the attack on former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and multiple assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump are all examples of America’s increasingly polarized and dangerous environment.

Now the 2024 elections could bring another flare-up, especially if Trump loses. Discussion about violence among right-wing extremists has also increased online, and unlike Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has refused to say he would give in.

However, Trump himself has used violent rhetoric. On Thursday, Trump denounced former Rep. Liz Cheney, an outspoken Republican critic of the former president, whom he described as a “radical war hawk.”

“Let’s just put her there with a gun while nine barrels shoot her, okay?” he said at a campaign event in Arizona. “Let’s see how she feels about, you know, having the guns pointed at her face.”

The polls show a tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, suggesting that this time, as in 2020, the results could be decided by narrow margins in some battleground states. Trump has pushed Republican voters to reject the results if he falls short, making baseless claims about voter fraud in Pennsylvania and that noncitizens are voting widely. Billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk has also set up a platform on his social media site

Those tactics seem to be working. If Trump loses, about a quarter of Republicans say they think he should do everything he can to ensure he becomes president, according to a September PRRI survey.

This may include the use of force. Among Republicans who don’t believe Biden’s 2020 victory was legitimate, nearly a third said in an August poll by the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University that they expected “a lot” or “a lot” of political violence after the elections. November elections. More recent polls have produced similar results, including an October AP-NORC poll that found 27 percent of Republicans, and 42 percent of voters overall, were “extremely” or “very” concerned about post-election violence .

All of this has put law enforcement and national security officials on high alert for political violence in the days before and after the election. Earlier this month, a joint intelligence bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the FBI said domestic extremists “pose a threat of violence against a range of targets directly and indirectly related to elections, at least through the presidential inauguration” January 20.

What kind of political violence could break out?

Some incidents of political violence have already been recorded in the run-up to election day.

Ballots in drop boxes and drop boxes in Massachusetts, Arizona, Washington and Oregon have been damaged in suspected arson. DHS warned that this could happen, based on its monitoring of online comments in domestic violent extremist circles. In a series of security bulletins in recent months, the agency noted: “Some threat actors may view ballot boxes as ‘soft targets’ because they are more accessible” and that some of these actors had discussed a variety of methods to harm them.

A man was also charged with terrorism and weapons possession for allegedly shooting three times at the Democratic National Committee offices in Phoenix since September.

Things can only get worse from here. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco has warned that the US is “facing unprecedented levels and increases in the threat of violence against government officials.”

According to the DHS bulletins, there is an “increased risk” that domestic violent extremists will “seek to ignite a civil war.” That kind of chatter has become increasingly common in online spaces frequented by right-wing extremist groups. That said, DHS noted that prosecuting those involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection and hesitation about potential false flag operations designed to entrap them could serve as a deterrent.

Law enforcement officials across the country are bracing for the possibility of escalation, especially in Democratic population centers. For example, Detroit’s election headquarters has reportedly been fortified with bulletproof glass and will be protected by armed guards after Trump supporters tried to interrupt the counting of ballots in 2020 by chanting “Stop the Count” and banging on windows. Philadelphia election staff will count ballots in 2020. a warehouse surrounded by a barbed wire fence, miles away from the center where protesters gathered in 2020.

Ultimately, however, these preparations may not be enough to quell domestic violent extremist activity, as Republican leaders encourage skepticism about election integrity and reportedly make secret plans to secure a second Trump term. set.

“It is important to be aware of the potential for violence and damage to the institutions we rely on,” said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, board member of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, in a statement declaration. . “But it is insufficient in light of legislative acts open to broad interpretation, strong political rhetoric dominating the public information space, and imperfect individuals acting in accordance with their oath.”

Update, November 1, 10:55 a.m. ET: This story was originally published on October 31 and has been updated to include Trump’s comments about Cheney.