NORTH TEXAS – I’m currently monitoring two areas on the radar. As a larger system approaches from the west, I expect to see an increase in activity in our western DMA.

THIS EVENING: Short-term and high-resolution models are not in complete agreement over the next 72 hours. The HRRR late tonight shows isolated convection developing ahead of the impulse coming in from the west. This area may have limited instability even after sunset, allowing significant updrafts to occur. However, the reporting on this seems overestimated to me. We’ll see.

SUNDAY: The HRRR for tomorrow morning indicates a heavier rain threat, with possible flash flooding. Current trends suggest this will remain north of Highway 380 in Denton and Collin counties.

It is expected that tomorrow afternoon will be busier than today. Near-term convective models indicate a broken line approaching the metroplex, with isolated cells potentially producing damaging winds and large hail.

MONDAY: Finally the busiest and for now last day of active weather. Trends indicate that a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) could develop ahead of the cold front early Monday through the afternoon and move through the urban area between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Please note: this image reflects the views of this model; for a few models it will come later in the afternoon. A QLCS typically produces high winds, heavy rainfall and brief, spin-up tornadoes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a few tornado warnings in this.