The MLB playoffs are off to a riveting start.

We’ve seen dramatic, mind-blowing home runs late in games — and grand slams on back-to-back days. We’ve seen the dislike between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres reach a boiling point we haven’t witnessed in the postseason since Pedro Martinez tossed Don Zimmer to the ground in 2003. We’ve seen Shohei Ohtani blast a home run in his first postseason game, normally unhittable closers losing games, the Detroit Tigers continuing their out-of-nowhere magical run and Grimace doing everything he can to inspire the New York Mets.

Let’s take stock of the early trends so far in the 2024 postseason.

Hitters beating closers or closers blowing leads?

No doubt, the top theme so far in these playoffs: What is going on late in games?

There have already been seven game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the seventh inning or later — compared to just five all of 2023. Indeed, this early pace could challenge the record of 15 such home runs hit in 2014, the only postseason with more than 12. (Francisco Lindor’s grand slam on Wednesday came in the sixth inning, so it doesn’t count in this tally, but it did come off Philadelphia Phillies closer Carlos Estevez.)

Maybe the most dramatic of the home runs has been Pete Alonso’s three-run blast off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of the final wild-card game to help advance the Mets to the division series and Kerry Carpenter’s three-run shot off Emmanuel Clase — the best closer in MLB this season — in Game 2 of the American League Division Series on Monday to tie the series. Let’s dig into those two.

Alonso’s one-out home run turns a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead for the Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Alonso’s home run was the 10th go-ahead home run in the ninth inning or later of a winner-take-all game in postseason history. In terms of win probability added, the only bigger hit in a sudden-death game was Francisco Cabrera’s bottom-of-the-ninth walk-off single for the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 of the 1992 National League Championship Series. It’s not an exaggeration to say Alonso’s home run was one of the most dramatic in playoff history (despite it coming in the wild-card round rather than later in the postseason).

But what made it even more shocking was it came off Williams, one of the top relievers in the game. Since 2020, when he won Rookie of the Year, Williams has a 1.70 ERA and batters have hit .145 off him. However, when Williams faced the Mets in that ninth inning, Lindor worked an eight-pitch leadoff walk off him and Brandon Nimmo singled on an 0-2 changeup — Williams’ signature pitch, nicknamed “The Airbender.” Williams then hung a 3-1 changeup that Alonso drilled 367 feet to right field.

Alonso’s home run capped a wild two-day span in Milwaukee. In Game 2, the Brewers won 5-3 after scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, including Jackson Chourio’s game-tying home run and Garrett Mitchell’s go-ahead two-run homer.

Carpenter takes Clase deep to give the Tigers a 3-0 win over the Cleveland Guardians.

This one may have been even more shocking than Alonso’s home run — and that’s no knock against the underrated Carpenter, who had the fourth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers in the majors. It’s just that Clase was coming off one of the best seasons a closer has ever had: 0.61 ERA, the third-lowest OPS allowed for a minimum of 50 innings and just five earned runs allowed all season.

Left-handed batters hit .115 against Clase. He had surrendered two home runs all season, none on his slider. So what does Carpenter do? He hit a 2-2 hanging slider for the three-run home run that would win Game 2 for Detroit and tie up the series.

“Kerry coming up there being Kerry Bonds, that’s what you want right there,” said teammate Jake Rogers, who started the rally with a two-out single off Clase. “He got one low and in the middle of the zone. I had the best view of it and I was screaming from the bottom of my lungs.”

Meanwhile, the Brewers and Guardians aren’t the only teams with struggling bullpens. The Phillies’ pen, with All-Star Jeff Hoffman, blew a late lead to the Mets in Game 1. The Mets and Edwin Diaz then blew a late lead in Game 2 — and then Hoffman and Estevez melted down in the Phillies’ Game 4 series-ending loss on Wednesday. It seems no lead is safe, no matter the quality of the reliever.

It’s all a good reminder that what happens with bullpens in the regular season isn’t predictive of what will happen in the postseason. Consider the regular-season bullpens of the recent World Series champions:

2023 Rangers: 24th in ERA, 26th in WPA
2022 Astros: First in ERA, second in WPA
2021 Braves: 10th in ERA, 14th in WPA
2020 Dodgers: Second in ERA, 4th in WPA
2019 Nationals: 29th in ERA, 30th in WPA
2018 Red Sox: Ninth in ERA, fifth in WPA
2017 Astros: 17th in ERA, 20th in WPA

It’s all about getting your pen hot at the right time — whether that pen was great, mediocre or bad in the regular season. Detroit’s pen is certainly hot, but maybe the best example of coming together at the right time is Kansas City: 20th in ERA and 26th in win probability added in the regular season, but it pitched very well in September (2.77 ERA) and did the job in the wild-card series and in Game 2 against the New York Yankees.

Aces delivering

If you had to rank the top starters entering the postseason, it probably would have gone: Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler (tied for first) with Cole Ragans third. Two of the hottest recent pitchers were Michael King (2.15 ERA in the second half) and Sean Manaea (3.09 ERA, .170 average over final 12 starts), and they would have factored into that conversation as well.

Here’s how this group has fared so far in the postseason: 5-0 in nine starts with a 1.50 ERA. Two of the no-decisions were games in which Skubal and Wheeler both tossed seven scoreless innings.

Skubal will win the American League Cy Young Award, but this was his first big season — and he’s been the breakout star of this postseason, tossing 13 scoreless innings in two starts. Ragans beat the Orioles 1-0 in the wild-card series, and while he hardly had his best command against the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, he managed to get through four innings while allowing just one run in the Kansas City Royals’ victory. In his wild-card-series start, King became the first pitcher in postseason history with 12-plus strikeouts, no runs and no walks or hit batters.

Manaea, meanwhile, beat the Phillies in Game 3 with seven scoreless frames. His clutch inning came in the sixth with the Mets up 2-0. He walked Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner to start the inning, but with a tired and scuffling bullpen, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza left Manaea in to face Bryce Harper. He struck out Harper on a changeup and two sweepers, three swings and misses. Nick Castellanos then lined into a double play. Depending on what happens the rest of the way, that strikeout of Harper may loom as one of the biggest outs of the entire postseason.

“It was just attack, not try to be too fine with things,” Manaea said when describing the Harper at-bat. “Attacking him and not trying to be too cute or too fancy. Really, just the energy going towards him and I knew the defense behind me is incredible. We can do incredible things. Just got to trust that. Just went right after it.”

Manaea’s success is a reminder of the two big signings Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns made in the offseason: Manaea and Luis Severino. The Mets were one of just five teams with two pitchers to reach 180 innings. Those two? Manaea and Severino.

Players stepping up for their teams

From 2019 to 2021, Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the most explosive young stars in the game: hitting .317 as a rookie, finishing third in the MVP voting in 2020 and then fourth in 2021 while leading the National League with 42 home runs (in just 130 games). Then came the injury in a motorcycle accident and the PED suspension that cost him all of 2022. When he returned in 2023, he never quite took off at the plate and neither did the Padres. This season, he missed more than two months with a stress reaction in his femur. You almost forgot that he’s still just 25 years old with superstar ability.

His numbers this postseason: 11-for-22 with four home runs, seven RBIs and — get this — only one strikeout He looks locked in and could be headed for one of those monster postseasons like Randy Arozarena in 2020 (.377, 10 HR, 14 RBIs) or Adolis Garcia last year (.323, 8 HR, 22 RBIs).

While the shenanigans at Dodger Stadium on Sunday in Game 2 took center stage in the Padres-Dodgers series, Game 3 on Tuesday at least unfolded without incident — except for San Diego’s six-run outburst in the second inning, capped by Tatis’ two-run home run.

“Yeah, definitely no fear,” Tatis said after the game when asked if the Padres-Dodgers rivalry was building to this moment. “But that’s something that you build through the years, getting experience playing against those guys. And definitely no fear.”

Meanwhile, Lindor and Alonso have carried the Mets into the NLCS. Lindor’s clutch ninth-inning home run against the Braves actually came in the regular season, but his grand slam off Estevez was another bolt of lightning — and it came against a 99.4-mph fastball from Estevez, the second-fastest pitch Lindor has ever hit for a home run. He also became just the third player, joining Jim Thome and Shane Victorino, with two career postseason grand slams.

Alonso has also been huge. After struggling big time with strikeouts in August and September, he’s hit .273/.433/.727 with three home runs in the Mets’ seven playoff games, with all three of his homers going to the opposite field. He’s struck out just eight times — after whiffing 74 times the final two months.

Other stars are slumping

Yes, we have to mention Aaron Judge and his three-game slump. He’s 1-for-11 with three walks and five strikeouts. The issue, of course, isn’t so much just what’s happened against the Royals, but what’s happened in previous postseasons. Judge hit .139 in 2022 and hit one home run and drove in two runs in 2019, both seasons that ended with the Yankees losing in the ALCS. He’s down to .203/.308/.440 in 47 career postseason games. The good news: The Yankees are still up 2-1 and it takes just one game to turn things around.

Others:

• Jose Ramirez is 1-for-9 with one RBI in three games and is hitting .233 with just two home runs in 35 career playoff games.

• Kyle Schwarber has been a beast the past two postseasons for the Phillies, but after homering in his first at-bat against the Mets, he finished just 2-for-16 with the one RBI and six strikeouts.

• Bobby Witt Jr. is 4-for-22 (.182) without an extra-base hit. All four of his hits have been groundball singles, so he’s having trouble getting the ball in the air. Welcome to the postseason, Bobby.

• Finally, there’s Shohei Ohtani. Given the way he finished the regular season — hitting .628 over his final 10 games — the expectations were sky-high. He homered in his first game, a three-run blast, and is at .250/.333/.438. Good … but not .628. Welcome to small sample size criticism, Shohei.

Defense matters

That six-run inning for the Padres came with help from a couple of Dodgers misplays in the field. Manny Machado led off with a base hit against Walker Buehler and then Jackson Merrill grounded to Freddie Freeman, who threw to second base, but Machado had smartly run inside the baseline and Freeman’s throw deflected away (sorry, Dodgers fans, Machado’s play was legal). The next play was even more egregious. Xander Bogaerts grounded to shortstop Miguel Rojas, who, for some reason, didn’t underhand toss it to Gavin Lux, instead hesitating and opting to turn it himself. Except Merrill beat Rojas to second and Bogaerts beat the throw to first. The inning fell apart from there for the Dodgers.

In Game 3 at Citi Field on Tuesday, Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor — showing off his 90th percentile arm strength — threw out Alec Bohm at second as Bohm tried to stretch a single. That play helped keep the Mets ahead 1-0 at the time. Mark Vientos’ defense for the Mets at third base, however, has been problematic enough that they replace him when leading late in games (at least he’s been raking at the plate).

In Wednesday’s Game 3 between the Yankees and Royals, Juan Soto — who, to be clear, is not exactly a Gold Glove right fielder to begin with — turned a catchable line drive into a game-tying RBI triple for Michael Massey.

While hitting more home runs than your opponent remains the best path to victory, no team can afford to give away runs with sloppy defense. We’ve been seeing a little too much of it so far this October.

Key injuries factoring in

Of course, we start here with the Dodgers, who entered the playoffs with such an injury-ravaged rotation that they had to start Buehler in Game 3 against the Padres — a pitcher who had ONE win in 16 starts in the regular season. In Game 4, they had to start reliever Ryan Brasier in a bullpen game. Not exactly how they drew it up in spring training.

A few other key injuries have popped up:

• Joe Musgrove injured his elbow in his wild-card start against the Braves and will undergo Tommy John surgery. That forced the Padres to start Dylan Cease on three days of rest in Game 4 against the Dodgers (over a rested Martin Perez), so that they could then start Yu Darvish in Game 5 if needed.

• Freeman’s sprained ankle, which he suffered near the end of the regular season, is clearly bothering him. He departed Game 2 after six innings, Game 3 after eight and was scratched from the Game 4 lineup at the last minute, too. He’s 3-for-11 in the series.

• Rojas, bothered by a groin injury, departed Game 3 after his defensive lapse and wasn’t in the starting lineup for Game 4, with Tommy Edman replacing him at shortstop.

• With Anthony Rizzo out for the Yankees after breaking two fingers on a hit by pitch the final weekend of the season, the Yankees have had to use stopgaps at first base. In Game 2, they started Jon Berti there — a guy who had never played an inning at first as a pro and who had one extra-base hit in the regular season. Teams sometimes do goofy things this time of year. They rarely pay off.

The unpredictable division series

Hard to believe, but this was the first time in division series history all four series were tied 1-1. What’s not hard to believe, in this season where we had no dominant team, is that lower-seeded teams are ripe for some “upsets” — although, we put quotes around that since there aren’t really any upsets with this format and especially given the evenness of all these teams in 2024.

The NL, in particular, is once again going contrary to seeding — as has been the case since the six-team format began in 2022:

2022: (6) Phillies over (2) Braves; (5) Padres over (1) Dodgers

2023: (6) Diamondbacks over (2) Dodgers; (4) Phillies over (1) Braves

2024: (6) Mets over (2) Phillies; Padres-Dodgers is headed to a winner-takes-all Game 5

The AL had one lower seed win between the 2022 and 2023 postseasons (Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles last year) but could be headed that way again with the Tigers and Royals.

And maybe that’s the biggest trend so far: Nobody knows what’s going to happen the rest of the way.