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The ‘Trump bump’ is fading, but consumers can push the stock market even higher
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The ‘Trump bump’ is fading, but consumers can push the stock market even higher

Stocks have softened in the past week after rising to record highs following Donald Trump’s election victory. The initial “Trump bubble” may fade as expectations of depressed corporate profits – partly thanks to deregulation and lower tax rates – are increasingly priced into the market. But election results aside, one prominent portfolio manager is happy with what she sees from the U.S. economy and, most importantly, from U.S. consumers.

Economic data on GDP growth and inflation points in the right direction, says Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors. Fortune late last week. While polls show that economic dissatisfaction played a major role in Trump’s return to the White House, there are signs that overall sentiment is improving.

“You have a consumer that is just standing firm,” Link said, “and that’s largely because they have jobs, they have wage growth that’s higher than inflation — at least today — and they’re spending.”

In many ways, the election results proved to be a positive catalyst for markets simply because they solved an unknown solution, she added. The S&P 500 posted its best post-election session ever, with the index rising more than 3.5% in the second week of November. Bank of America strategists said $56 billion flowed into U.S. stocks through Nov. 13, based on EPFR Global data cited by Bloomberg.

Link noted that the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut, along with news of China’s $1.4 trillion spending package, addressed other sources of uncertainty.

“We all breathed a sigh of relief,” said Link, who manages a $5.2 billion stock portfolio and regularly CNBC contributor.

It appears the mood on Main Street is also improving, even as many Americans remain wary of higher prices. On election day, the services purchasing managers’ index, a measure of economic activity, reached its highest level since July 2022. A reading above 50 is considered expansionary; The Services PMI, as it is commonly called, registered 56% last month, up 1.1% from September.

“Two and a half years ago, we were just coming out of the COVID-19 crisis,” Link said, “so you could understand why services would be so strong. Fast forward to today, consumers still want experiences. Consumers are still spending.”

However, Trump’s victory illustrated that many Americans do not share the same rosy outlook. About 40% of voters considered the economy and employment to be the country’s most important issues Associated pressand those voters overwhelmingly supported the Republican candidate to return to the Oval Office.