You’ve probably heard the disclaimer, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” And that statement is true. However, I would add something to the disclaimer: “But a big lead is almost always a good thing.”

Several large-cap stocks have a big lead that could allow them to finish the year strong. I predict these will be the top three performers S&P 500 (SNP INDEX: ^GSPC) stocks of 2024.

1. Nvidia

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is currently the biggest gainer of the year so far in the S&P 500. Shares of the GPU maker are up more than 150%. I don’t think Nvidia will relinquish its top position by the end of 2024.

On August 12th, I predicted that Nvidia stock would rise another 20% or more by the end of the year. My prediction has almost come true. One reason for that is that some of the factors weighing on Nvidia are no longer as worrisome.

More importantly, Nvidia has yet to report results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025. The company is expected to provide a second-quarter update on August 28. I fully expect another big quarter for Nvidia, which should fuel investor optimism.

I also think the company will reassure investors about the timing of the launch of its Blackwell-based chips. Blackwell is Nvidia’s latest GPU architecture that CEO Jensen Huang believes will be the most successful product in the company’s history.

2. Supermicrocomputer

Supermicrocomputer (NASDAQ: SMCI)commonly known as Supermicro, is the second-best stock on the S&P 500 so far this year. Shares of the IT infrastructure company are up about 115%. I expect Supermicro to continue to grow in the coming months.

Will Supermicro’s upcoming 10-for-1 stock split on October 1st be a big catalyst? Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it. Even if there is a boost from the split, it may only be temporary.

The smarter reason to look for continued strong performance from Supermicro is the tailwinds generated by artificial intelligence (AI). In the fourth quarter of Supermicro’s fiscal 2024 year, the company generated $5.31 billion in revenue. It’s forecasting revenue of between $6 billion and $7 billion in fiscal 2025. That’s a 22% increase in just three months — and much of that comes from AI-related demand.

Supermicro could also benefit from Nvidia’s launch of its Blackwell chips. Even if there is a worse-than-expected delay to that launch, Supermicro CEO Charles Liang doesn’t think his company will suffer too much because of the overall demand for its liquid cooling solutions.

The story continues

3. Eli Lilly

I’m taking a chance on my next pick. Three S&P 500 stocks are currently outperforming Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) alongside Nvidia and Supermicro. However, I suspect this big pharma stock could surpass them and end the year as the No. 3 stock in the S&P.

My bullish view of Lilly is largely based on my high expectations for the company’s tirzepatide franchise. In the U.S., the drug is marketed under the brand name Mounjaro for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and under the brand name Zepbound for the treatment of obesity. Outside the U.S., it is marketed as Mounjaro for both indications. Whatever you call it, tirzepatide is already a hugely successful blockbuster drug. Mounjaro brought in $3.09 billion in sales in Q2, while Zepbound earned $1.24 billion.

Investors also know that Lilly could have more indications for tirzepatide on the horizon. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could make an approval decision for the drug in late 2024 for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea and obesity. Lilly plans to file for regulatory approval of tirzepatide later this year for the treatment of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and obesity.

Lilly’s recently FDA-approved Alzheimer’s drug, Kisunla, can’t be overlooked. I don’t expect the therapy to see mind-blowing sales numbers in the second half of the year. However, more regulatory approvals outside the U.S. are possible by the end of 2024. And if U.S. sales are better than expected, Kisunla could give investors more reason to be excited about Lilly’s growth prospects.

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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Prediction: These Will Be the Best-Performing S&P 500 Stocks of 2024 originally published by The Motley Fool