Anthony Richardson will be fine. He will be the starting quarterback for a long time, he will only get better and will be back on the field this week. However, Richardson has been raw this year and Joe Flacco has shown himself to be the more polished passer thus far. What can Richardson do to reach the level that Joe Flacco has reached as a passer. Flacco is certainly not a great quarterback anymore, but there are qualities that made him successful in his career and continue to help him today.

There was a time when the top quarterbacks in the draft either didn’t play their rookie season or had to wait a while before they could play. The 2003 first overall pick, Carson Palmer, didn’t play a snap in his rookie season. 2005 first overall pick Alex Smith didn’t play until October of his rookie year. Drew Brees didn’t play at all in his rookie season and Aaron Rodgers didn’t play for three seasons! Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play until November of his rookie season. The Packers let Jordan Love sit for two seasons. Jalen Hurts didn’t play for most of his rookie season. The list goes on.

There are a lot of players who played early and were successful, but those players had college experience and had a more professional playing style. Richardson had 12 starts in college and was far from polished as a passer, showing a lot of inconsistency with his timing and accuracy. He had (and still has) a tendency to miss short to intermediate throws and was often late with his passes. What he showed was breathtaking athleticism to match his rare size and an incredibly strong arm that could make any throw on the field with ease.

Richardson is a young, raw quarterback with tremendous potential. He made some unique plays this year that you don’t see from 98% of quarterbacks in the history of the game. At 22 years old, born in 2002, he is the second-youngest quarterback on any roster in the NFL (only Drake Maye is younger).

To be a great quarterback in the NFL you need three things: accuracy, timing and smart decision-making. There have been weak-armed quarterbacks who had these three things and were successful.

Accuracy is important because the windows in the NFL are extremely tight and the players move and react faster. Ball placement is also critical in many ways, as you need to place the ball in the best possible spot so that the receiver can not only make a catch, but also get yards after the catch. Throwing behind a receiver with a drag who is immediately tackled after a few yards doesn’t do much good, but if you hit him in stride and in front of him, a 10-yard throw can turn into a 15-yard throw. For an example of his accuracy, see the second throw in Baldinger’s analysis below.

Time is important because, as mentioned earlier, the windows are getting a lot tighter and the players are getting faster, so you can’t afford to be late with your throws or it will end up in the opponent’s hands. Timing is a general term and anticipation falls under timing, because you have to throw receivers open. For example, for many throws in the NFL it is usually too late to hit a receiver two steps outside an out route, so many top quarterbacks get the ball out before the receiver even makes his cut. This is done because the receiver is most open the first few steps out of his cut, so you want the ball in his hands when he is most open. Like accuracy, a well-timed throw will prevent turnovers, but will also turn an 8-yard gain into an 18-yard gain.

Finally, smart decision making is the last major factor. Tom Brady had a legendary career with plenty of dinking and dunking. Colts fans vividly remember many Brady games where he would kill the Colts with a thousand checkdowns in the middle zone vacated during a Tampa 2 defense. A great quarterback almost never forces a bad throw and when they have to, it’s usually because they’re in a tough situation. Having a stronger arm does make a difference in this area as it allows you to make more throws and therefore has more options to work with. A smart decision means taking a high percentage of throws, avoiding turnovers and moving the ball consistently. As previously mentioned, there were many games where Brady didn’t throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, but still went 25/35 for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns and won easily. These quarterbacks take what is given and make the most of it. If you look at the charts below you will see more about that.

If you look at the charts, you’ll see that Flacco wins by taking all the short throws and not forcing anything. He moves the ball by killing defenses with some paper cut throws. There are occasional plays, but it’s the 5-6 meter throws that add up. Richardson, as you can see, relies purely on his incredible arm and the big plays. That just doesn’t work consistently in the NFL. Flacco has 25% of the arm talent and 5% of the athleticism as Richardson, yet he has still been the better quarterback this season, largely because of his decision-making.

The 39-year-old Flacco has played about 11 quarters of football this season and has gone 71/108 for 716 yards with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. He even has a 21 yard run! His passer rating is 102, which is one of the highest in the NFL for quarterbacks over the past few games. He pitted these statistics against the best defenses, especially the Steelers defense, which in many ways was the No. 1 defense in the NFL. He did this by being accurate, making good decisions and being on time with his throws.

In regards to the three things, Richardson hasn’t yet shown the ability to be consistently good in these areas. What’s encouraging is that he’s shown the ability to make incredibly accurate throws and hit receivers at the perfect time. He’s also had long stretches of not forcing throws and making the right decision. The power is there, but it’s not consistent and that’s what matters. A great quarterback is consistent.

Joe Flacco is consistent. He doesn’t have the same arm talent as he once did, but there’s a reason he can still thrive in the NFL, whether it’s with the Cleveland Browns or the Indianapolis Colts. The hope is that Richardson can combine Flacco’s skills with his own 1-on-1 arm talent and athleticism to create a Josh Allen-type quarterback.