Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While much of this foundational work continues to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities that the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we utilise the most appropriate markets for a particular position or angle.

Indianapolis Colts Offensive Line Could Neutralize Chicago Bears Run Defense

The Colts face a tough challenge this week against a Bears run defense, which has been among the NFL’s best since the start of 2023. They rank in the top three in EPA allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed.

The market appears to be anticipating a decline in the Colts’ rushing output as Jonathan TaylorThe current rushing prop is set significantly lower than in his first two weeks, despite easily outperforming him last week.

However, not all matchups are created equal. In this strength-on-strength contest, the underlying data suggests the Colts’ blocking efficiency should allow them to overcome Chicago’s stout run defense.

Because PFF tracks every play on every snap, we can measure “perfect blocks,” where no player on the offensive line misses his assignment. A few years ago, we discovered that perfectly blocked runs are among the most valuable plays in football. For teams like the Colts, who excel at this, perfect block rates tend to be sustainable and as close to matchup-proof as you’ll find in the NFL.

Not only do the Colts generate a high percentage of perfect blocks, but they also win after contact, which strengthens the case for their offense.

Recommended bets: It may not be the most exciting angle, but in a strength-on-strength matchup, the underlying metrics favor the Colts. The market seems to be reflecting that, and I’ll take Taylor’s rushing props and bet on game scripts in which the Colts dominate on the ground.

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Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud breaks down Minnesota Vikings’ zone coverage and blitz packages

With Brian Flores at the helm, the Vikings have become one of the NFL’s most blitz-heavy, zone-reliant defenses. After two straight strong performances, the market is starting to buy the Vikings defense, and their totals for their games show it. However, those two areas — zone coverage and the blitz — are exactly where CJ Stroud has excelled.

Against man coverage, Stroud is below average in efficiency. But when he does face zone coverage, he is one of the NFL’s best performers. Not only is Stroud consistent on a down-to-down basis against zone defenses, but he also ranks second in explosive play rate, throwing an explosive pass nearly 12% of the time when facing zone coverage.

Stroud has also thrived against the blitz, earning the eighth-highest PFF grade in such situations, compared to 13th without the blitz. His efficiency, as measured by EPA, also improves against blitz-heavy defenses. Additionally, Stroud has a greater tendency to make explosive plays when blitzed, even after adjusting for the higher baseline explosive play rate that blitzing naturally allows.

Recommended bets: After a tough Sunday Night Football game, I’m backing Stroud in this game, which I think is being perceived as tougher than it actually is. Minnesota’s defensive leanings play directly to Stroud’s strengths, making this an opportunity for a big performance. I’m betting on Stroud’s passing yards, his alternate passing yards, and the Texans’ team totals.

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