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Top picks from the CFB betting splits for Friday October 11th
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Top picks from the CFB betting splits for Friday October 11th

Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights action on the College Football schedule. Let’s take a look at where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Northwestern (2-3) just fell to Indiana 41-24 last week and failed to cover as 13-point home dogs. Likewise, Maryland (3-2) is coming off a bye after losing 42-28 to Indiana and failing to beat the 7.5-point road dogs. This line started with Maryland as the home favorite by 10 points. The crowd isn’t deterred by the double-digit spread, with 64% of spread bets putting the points at the Terps’ home. This lopsided support pushed Maryland up from -10 to -11.5. Then we saw some buybacks on Northwestern at a high price, causing several stores to drop back down from +11.5 to +11. Some stores even go down to +10.5. Northwestern offers notable contrarian value, as they receive only 36% of spread bets (but 40% of spread dollars) in a high-stakes primetime game on FSI. The Wildcats have even more value as a conference dog, with the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team in terms of points. Northwestern also has a correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a low overall game (45.5), with the lower number of expected points making it harder for the bigger favorite to cover.

UNLV (4-1) just suffered its first loss of the season, falling 44-41 in overtime to Syracuse as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Utah State (1-4) has dropped four in a row and just rolled through Boise State 62-30, failing to cover the 28-point road dogs. This line opened with UNLV listed as a 19-point road favorite. The crowd is expecting a UNLV blowout and 70% of spread bets are placing the points on the Rebels. Despite this lopsided support, however, the line has not deviated from UNLV -19. Some stores briefly rose to -19.5 before dropping back down to -19. Some stores even go to -18.5. This indicates a sharp freeze on the lines and a sneaky reverse line move on Utah State plus the points, which also have a notable contrarian value as they receive only 30% of the spread bets (but 36% of the dollars spread) in a late-night, heavy-duty game. on CBSSN. Sharps have also reached the over, taking the total from 64.5 to 66.5. The over receives 53% of the bets, but a whopping 76% of the dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp across the split. UNLV is averaging 44.4 PPG on offense, while Utah State is allowing 41.4 PPG on defense.

Utah (4-1, ranked 16th) is coming off a bye after just losing their first game of the year, falling to Arizona 23-10 as home favorites by 7.5 points. On the other hand, Arizona State (4-1) defeated Kansas 35-31, making it a 2.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Utah listed as a 4-point road favorite. The crowd is banking on well-rested Utah to bounce back from their first defeat, with 74% of spread bets putting the points in the hands of the Utes. These lopsided bets pushed Utah up from -4 to -6. Then we saw an Arizona State buyback +6, bringing the line back down to +5.5. A big variable here is the status of Utah QB Cameron Rising, who is questionable after missing the past three games with a hand injury. Arizona State is the most contrarian game of the night, receiving just 26% of spread bets (but 33% of spread dollars) in the evening’s highest-stakes game, which is nationally televised on ESPN. The Sun Devils have a low buy value as an unranked home conference dog against a high sell-ranked opponent, as well as a “dog that can score” system matchup (33.2 PPG), giving them pace or backdoor coverage.