Two of England’s biggest clubs meet in the EFL Cup on Wednesday in what could well be the tie of the round. Man City’s domestic form gives them the edge with the Opta supercomputer, but is that justified? Learn more with our Tottenham vs Man City prediction.

Tottenham vs Man City Statistics: the most important insights

• Man City are big favorites with the Opta supercomputer, winning this game 56.7% of the time.
• After failing to score in each of their first five away games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between 2019 and 2023, Man City have won their last two without conceding.
• Tottenham have been eliminated in their last three League Cup matches against fellow Premier League teams. They went to Chelsea in 2021-2022, to Nottingham Forest in 2022-2023 and to Fulham in 2023-2024.

Tottenham welcome Premier League leaders Manchester City to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday, where they will face off in the fourth round of the EFL Cup.

This will be the first League Cup meeting between the teams since the 2021 final, which was won 1-0 by Man City at Wembley. However, Tottenham won the other three matches between the teams in the EFL Cup, in 1992 (1-0), 2003 (3-1) and 2007 (2-0).

These sides enjoyed/experienced contrasting fortunes over the weekend. Spurs worked away at Crystal Palace and lost 1-0. In a fairly lifeless performance from the away side, Jean-Philippe Mateta’s first-half goal was enough to seal all three points for the Eagles.

It was another frustrating example of Tottenham’s inconsistency under Ange Postecoglou. Victories over West Ham and AZ Alkmaar have now been followed by heavy defeats against Brighton and Crystal Palace.

They are currently ninth in the Premier League and are expected to finish sixth. Winning the Europa League will be a priority for Spurs, but with just four games left to play, the EFL Cup may be their best chance of lifting a trophy this season.

However, Spurs almost didn’t get that far. Championship side Coventry City were minutes away from being knocked out in the third round. The Sky Blues were 1-0 up before goals from Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson turned the match on its head.

Manchester City come into this match on the back of five wins in all competitions since the 1-1 draw with Newcastle. Their most recent opponents, Southampton, may have feared the worst when Erling Haaland scored his 11th league goal of the season this weekend to open the scoring.

But despite 22 shots and almost three expected goals, Pep Guardiola’s men had to settle for a narrow victory. Yet they remain overwhelming favorites to claim a record fifth consecutive Premier League title.

City have already done better in the EFL Cup than last year. They were eliminated in the third round by Newcastle in the 2023/2024 season, but got past Watford in the third round thanks to goals from Jérémy Doku and Matheus Nunes.

In team news, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Doku will all miss City. Son Heung-min, who was absent for Spurs’ defeat to Palace last weekend, has not recovered in time to play here.

Tottenham vs Manchester City Prediction

Man City’s domestic form makes them strong favorites to win this match with the Opta supercomputer.

You have to go back to last year’s FA Cup final to find the last time they lost a competitive match. They have also had the upper hand over Spurs of late, winning their last two games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without conceding.

These factors mean that the model gives them a 56.7% chance of winning the game within 90 minutes. Spurs have 21.5% progress, while the draw – which would send the game to penalties – occurs in 21.8% of simulations.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign a skill score to more than 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, with zero being the worst ranked team in the world and 100 being the best team in the world.

Before kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each team.

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