Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed in the Caribbean and is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael soon. Future Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane before entering the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will be less conducive for the system to maintain that intensity later this week.

Here is the latest status of this system: Tropical Depression Eighteen is located 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving north at 9 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms near the center of the system are gradually becoming better organized. That’s why the National Hurricane Center considered this system a tropical depression late Monday morning.

Here is the latest intensification and track forecast: This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael sometime later today or tonight. Depending on how quickly it organizes, it could become a hurricane somewhere near the Cayman Islands or western Cuba on Wednesday.

Future Rafael is expected to undergo some degree of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico next, as it will likely experience increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air, and cooling waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

What we know about Rafael’s potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast in the future: In short: the forecast remains very uncertain.

“The system is expected to reach the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-term forecast track and intensity, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should do so. please check forecast updates regularly,” the NHC said on Monday.

Gusty winds may also develop in parts of South Florida and the Keys.

What you can expect from this system in the Caribbean: Heavy rain could cause flash flooding and mudslides early this week from Haiti’s southern Tiburon Peninsula to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (wind speeds of 120 km/h or higher) are expected. Hurricane force winds could reach the Cayman Islands as early as Tuesday afternoon.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, meaning tropical storm conditions (wind speeds of 24 to 75 mph) are expected. These conditions are expected to arrive in Jamaica this evening.

A hurricane watch is now also in effect for western Cuba. This means that hurricane conditions are possible there in the next 48 hours. Tropical storms extend from there east into central Cuba.

Some storm surge flooding is also possible in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for more than 10 years after starting his career at The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.