NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – The National Hurricane Center has identified the northwestern Caribbean as an area to watch for possible tropical developments during the last week of September.

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Models are calling for a tropical system next week, something to watch for the northern Gulf.

This tropical wave is caused by a seasonal low pressure circulation over Central America that forms each year in late spring and early fall and is called the Central American Gyre (CAG).

The CAG can cause flooding and rainfall in Central America and smaller low pressure areas can trigger the larger circulation, leading to tropical development in the Caribbean, Gulf and eastern Pacific.

Systems that form outside the CAG are difficult to predict because models have difficulty determining the location of the storm center until a wave or low pressure area develops.

This creates a lot of model uncertainty about the ultimate course and strength of the tropical system.

In October, the steering pattern tends toward the eastern Gulf, due to cold fronts beginning to move across the southeast.

The timing of these fronts and the location of high pressure areas in the upper atmosphere help determine the ultimate course of a tropical system in the Gulf.

The long-term pattern for next week includes these features, so we will continue to monitor model trends closely as the forecast evolves.

The development is likely to take place late this weekend or early next week.

Gulf Coast residents should keep a close eye on the weather forecast, even heading into the weekend.

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