TAMPA, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that is increasingly likely to develop in the coming days.

According to the NHC, the area has a 30 percent chance of development in the next two days, rising to 70 percent in the next seven days.

Starting Tuesday morning, the tropical wave will produce disorganized rain and thunderstorms, the NHC said.

The National Hurricane Center gives a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea a 70 percent chance of developing in the next seven days.

Where might the wave go as it develops?

FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says the disturbance will move west through the Caribbean Sea, where waters will remain warm and deep without wind shear, which could allow development.

“It’s easy to see that a storm could develop there,” Osterberg said.

Some models keep the wave in the Caribbean, while others move it north toward the Gulf of Mexico before rushing east.

Models are divided on where the tropical wave might go as it develops. Some keep it in the Caribbean, while others move it north toward the Gulf of Mexico before turning east.

Regardless of where the wave goes, or even develops, major impacts to Florida do not appear likely due to drier air moving across the state and the Gulf this weekend.

Still, Osterberg says the area will be one to watch in the coming days.

Drier air will move across Florida this weekend, reducing humidity and returning temperatures to normal levels for this time of year.

The next named storm would be called Sara.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

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