Tropical Storm Francine is expected to strengthen to a hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Storm surge, flooding, destructive winds and tornadoes are expected to hit Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and the South.

This is the latest status of this system: Francine is located about 400 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving slowly to the north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph at 7 a.m. CDT, making Francine a strong tropical storm.

Most of the rain from this system is still falling out to sea, but some rain bands have already spread across parts of South Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.

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Where warnings and supervision are in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Areas of A storm surge warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana.

These warnings are typically issued when hurricane conditions (winds greater than 75 mph) and life-threatening storm surge are expected within the next 36 hours.

Tropical storm watches and warnings also cover much of the rest of the western and northern Gulf Coast, from northeastern Mexico to the Alabama-Mississippi border. New Orleans is under a tropical storm warning, meaning sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected within 36 hours.

The map below shows where hurricane and tropical storm warnings and/or advisories are currently in effect.

Predicted route and intensity: Francine is expected to strengthen further before making landfall as a hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast later Wednesday, with impacts expected to arrive well in advance. At this time, the National Hurricane Center is predicting Francine to be a Category 2 at landfall.

A pool of very warm water from the Gulf is aiding this intensification. Dry air has been a limiting factor for strengthening since Monday evening, but Francine is expected to re-intensify later Tuesday and Wednesday. Once Francine reaches the Gulf Coast, it will also encounter increasing wind shear that could limit its intensity at landfall.

After the system makes landfall, rainwater will spread across parts of the South into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys by late this week.

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Possible consequences

Floods Precipitation

Heavy rains will hit parts of the coast from south Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi and southern Alabama on Tuesday, with some areas along the coast expected to continue through Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Total rainfall from Francine could amount to 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches, across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. New Orleans, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Biloxi, Mississippi, are among the cities where flood warnings have been issued due to this heavy rainfall threat.

Heavy rain from this system will spread across other parts of the South into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by late week. At least some localized flooding is possible in these areas.

(Further strengthen your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Storm surge

A life-threatening storm surge will inundate low-lying areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast beginning Tuesday evening.

According to the National Hurricane Center, peak flooding in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, could reach 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) if storm surge coincides with high tide.

This surge of water is expected to arrive within a few hours on either side of landfall later Wednesday. However, some parts of the Gulf Coast down to Mobile Bay could see at least some coastal flooding that will last into Thursday morning.

If you are ordered to evacuate, follow the advice of local authorities.

Damaging winds

Hurricane conditions could arrive in areas under hurricane warnings in southern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon. Complete all preparations in those areas by Tuesday evening, when tropical storm force winds could begin.

These winds could blow down trees and knock out power in southern Louisiana. Prepare now for power outages that could last for several days after the storm passes in this area.

Some tropical storm force winds are possible near the South Texas coast, other parts of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and the far Upper Texas coast. Some scattered power outages and tree damage are possible in these areas, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Possible tornadoes

Tropical cyclones that fall over land often produce a few tornadoes near and inland from where they cross the coast. An isolated tornado threat from this system could develop Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

Isolated tornado threats remain possible in eastern Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Thursday.

First in a while

Francine was the first Atlantic storm to reach the North Atlantic since Ernesto on August 20.

According to hurricane expert Michael Lowry of WPLG-TV, it has been 30 years since the Atlantic region saw no active tropical cyclones during the first full week of September.

And Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, noted that the last time no storms formed in the Atlantic basin between August 13 and September 8 was in 1968.