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Tropical Storm Rafael becomes a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba

Vaseline November 5, 2024

Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen Tuesday as it approaches Jamaica and Cuba before it is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Rafael is expected to sweep across Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon before developing into a hurricane near the Cayman Islands and strengthening further on Wednesday before making landfall in Cuba. “The storm is currently in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive to strengthening,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Because there is a lot of uncertainty in the long-term forecasts, the National Hurricane Center said it is too early to determine what impacts Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle around the weekend, according to AccuWeather, which says the best chance of landfall is along Louisiana’s central coast. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving across western Mexico.

The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear are expected to limit the hurricane’s strength as it barrels across the Gulf of Mexico. “This will not be a situation where there is a strengthening major hurricane making landfall in the US, but rather something that is less intense in terms of wind intensity,” AccuWeather’s forecast said.

Still, the storm threatens to bring flooding rain, mudslides, damaging winds and dangerous surf and currents to Cuba, which is still reeling from the collapse of the power grid and Hurricane Oscar.

The Cayman Islands and much of Cuba are under hurricane warnings Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said, urging that “preparations to protect life and property must be completed urgently.” Tropical storm warnings and watches were active throughout Jamaica, parts of Cuba and the Florida Keys.

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?

Tropical Storm Rafael was located about 80 miles (130 kilometers) southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and about 230 miles (370 kilometers) southeast of Grand Cayman Island, according to the hurricane center’s 7 a.m. update. With winds of 100 km/h, the storm is moving northwest through the Caribbean at a speed of 21 km/h.

Rafael is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Tuesday, bringing heavy rainfall to the island, which could cause mudslides along the higher ground.

As the storm moves north over warm Caribbean waters, it is expected to intensify and reach near-hurricane force as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening, unleashing hurricane-force winds, storm surges and destructive waves, the hurricane center said.

On Wednesday, the storm is expected to strengthen further before making landfall along western Cuba, where meteorologists say the storm could raise water levels as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels. Cuba, as well as parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, could see between 3 and 6 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches.

Later Wednesday, the storm will move along the Florida Keys, bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain, according to the hurricane center, which added, “A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and southwestern mainland Florida on Wednesday.”

According to hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Rafael is the 17th storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. An average year has 14 storms.