“That potential landfall zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast.”

See the impact of Tropical Storm Rafael Texas

“The good news is that while Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane by mid-week, the chance of a storm is very low. reaches land like a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday evening as it moves northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Large parts of the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, are also likely to experience heavy rainfall.

Texas and adjacent areas in the southeastern United States could experience Rafael in the middle to latter part of the week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Rafael

1. Rafael is forecast to exceed hurricane intensity near or over the Cayman Islands, where damaging hurricane winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are also expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica until early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys starting late Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
3. It is too early to determine what impact Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should check forecast updates regularly.
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rainfall to parts of the western Caribbean, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western parts of Cuba, until early Thursday. Flash floods and mudslides are possible in the higher terrain of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rain will spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by midweek.