Tropical Storm Rafael is on track to reach the southern tip of Louisiana on Saturday as it continues to strengthen on its way to the Gulf of Mexico, and could become a hurricane by the time it hits Cuba.

The storm formed over the Caribbean and is poised to become a “rare Gulf November hurricane,” Payton Malone, a meteorologist in New Orleans, wrote on X.

Malone warns of possible rain and wind, but encourages locals to remain optimistic. He wrote that the storm could weaken as it heads toward the coast with wind shear, dry air and water temperatures weakening as Rafael approaches the northern Gulf toward the end of the week.

“It’s still unclear how many of Rafael will even get here,” Malone wrote.

“Don’t cancel weekend plans yet, but know that there may be rain and gusty winds on Saturday. Come back!”

Outside of New Orleans, Rafael will also bring heavy rain to Florida, issuing tropical storm warnings for parts of the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.

Jamaica is also under a tropical storm warning, while the Cayman Islands is under a hurricane warning.

The storm is expected to maintain strength as it looms over the Caribbean and will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

Most recently, Rafael grew up about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. According to the US National Hurricane Center, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 70 km/h as it moved north at 15 km/h.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday evening, while the Cayman Islands could see a storm surge of up to 1 meter on Tuesday. according to the NHC. The storm could also cause flooding and mudslides in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

Rafael – the 17th named storm of the season – could become the 11th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

With Postal Wires.