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Trump extends lead in presidential chances over Harris
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Trump extends lead in presidential chances over Harris

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has widened his lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris as the 2024 race for the White House enters its home stretch.

Trump’s lead comes after a slew of canceled media interviews and a Univision town hall where he again embraced the Jan. 6 insurrection, calling it a “day of love” and repeated untruths about migrants in Springfield, Ohio that led to violence threats resulted.

Democrats have raised questions about Trump’s age and behavior at his rallies, including at a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, that was interrupted by medical emergencies in the audience. On Saturday, Trump fixated on the male anatomy of the late golf legend Arnold Palmer during a speech in western Pennsylvania.

The Harris campaign has said Trump is too old and unstable to hold office, echoing calls that ultimately led to President Joe Biden dropping out of the race.

Trump’s lead in the promotion, in which US bookmakers cannot legally participate, is the largest since Harris entered the race in late July.

Presidential betting timeline

Presidential Betting from 10/21

Bet 365

  • Donald Trump: -163
  • Kamala Harris: +130

via Covers.com

Bovada

  • Donald Trump: -160
  • Kamala Harris: +135

BetOnline

  • Donald Trump: -155
  • Kamala Harris: +135

Oddschecker

  • Donald Trump: -143
  • Kamala Harris: +150

Big bets raise questions in the prediction market

Four mysterious accounts have collectively pumped $30 million into crypto bets on Trump winning the election in recent weeks, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal, raising questions about a popular prediction market’s rapid shift toward a Trump victory.

Polymarket — a betting site often touted by billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk — has gone from posting roughly equal odds of a Harris or Trump victory just two weeks ago to a 62% chance for Trump and a chance of 38% for Harris.

The increase coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts – redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Each account was funded by deposits from the same US crypto exchange called Kraken, according to Arkham, a company that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.

Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the WSJ: “There are strong reasons to believe they are the same entity.”

While not illegal or necessarily nefarious, the WSJ reported that some observers see the bets as part of an influence campaign to generate social media buzz and create the perception that Trump is ahead.

The election website FiveThirtyEight – which relies on a model based on polls – gave Trump a slight lead on Sunday, with a 52% chance compared to Harris’ 48% chance of winning the election.