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Trump’s bets on Harris nearly collapsed last week
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Trump’s bets on Harris nearly collapsed last week

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Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris nearly collapsed during the final full week of the 2024 campaign.

Trump was favored a week ago by the British bookmaker Bet 365 and stood at -188, while his odds at the beginning of the Monday before election day were at -138. Harris’ odds have been reduced from +150 to +120 at the bookmaker.

The smallest spread in the promotion, which American bookmakers cannot participate in, came from offshore bookmaker BetOnline, which had Trump at +140 and Harris at -120.

The collapse comes as the impact of the statement against Puerto Ricans by a speaker at Trump’s campaign rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden spilled into communities in swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania.

Last week, a poll was released by the Des Moines Register – part of the USA TODAY Network – showing Harris with a lead in Iowa, although within the poll’s margin of error. The poll was an eye-catcher as the state was considered a safe Trump stronghold.

“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, which conducted the survey for The Register. “She has clearly established a leadership position.”

Presidential betting timeline

Presidential Betting from 11/4

Bet 365

  • Donald Trump: -138
  • Kamala Harris: +120

via Covers.com

Bovada

  • Donald Trump: -140
  • Kamala Harris: +120

BetOnline

  • Donald Trump: -140
  • Kamala Harris: +120

Oddschecker

  • Donald Trump: -133
  • Kamala Harris: +150

Election day is less than 24 hours away. Sign up for USA TODAY’s On Politics newsletter for the latest news and exclusive analysis.

How accurate have the election odds been in the past presidential elections?

According to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the gambling favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

The most recent turmoil occurred in 2016, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign but lost.

The other setback came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey eight to one.