Since President-elect Donald Trump’s first term in office, the US has used its powers of trade restrictions and sanctions in an attempt to curb China’s technological advances. Now that he returns to the White House, the semiconductor war between the US and China could escalate.

“If Trump enters office, he has already said in his campaign rhetoric that he is going to double and even tighten tariffs and export controls,” Arthur Dong, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, told Quartz in an interview prior to the elections.

Efforts to slow China’s advanced chip manufacturing capabilities during Trump’s first presidential term continued by the Biden administration.

Earlier this year, this was also reportedly the case with the Biden administration debate using an export control called the foreign direct product rulewhich would impact companies in US allies, including Japan’s Tokyo Electron (TOLI+0.42%) and the Dutch chip machine maker ASML (ASML-2.21%). The rule does not allow the export of any good to any country if it is manufactured with a certain percentage of US intellectual property components. That was reported later some allies would be exempt if the rule is extended.

“He (Trump) will likely go further than the Biden administration has gone in imposing blanket tariffs on a much wider variety of goods,” Dong said.

Trump has already imposed restrictions on chip sales to China

Under the first Trump administration, the Chinese tech giant Huawei was placed on the US Entity List in 2019 after the administration determined that she had “engaged in activities contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States.” Other Chinese semiconductor companies have done so too added to the list to prevent American companies from sending equipment for advanced chip production.

Trump extended the ban on Huawei’s products until 2021, and trade restrictions on Huawei and other Chinese tech companies are only was tightened under the Biden administration.

Before the election, these were reportedly US-based chip equipment manufacturers brace for more export controls under the Biden administration, and told suppliers that afraid of jeopardizing their supplier status for the use of certain components supplied by China. The companies also reportedly told suppliers that they had no Chinese investors or shareholders.

“If you look at the geopolitical landscape, I think it is clear that the US will continue to pressure its allies for more restrictions,” said ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet. said in October. “The question is: what is good for the Netherlands? What is good for Europe?”

Trump is not interested in protecting Taiwan

During his most recent presidential campaign, Trump said he would impose tariffs on chips from Taiwan, which could severely impact global chip production as the majority of the world’s most advanced chips are manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.TSM-1.14%). The Taiwanese chipmaker is counting on Nvidia (NVDA+4.08%) and apple (AAPL-0.35%) as major customers.

In October, Trump accused Taiwan of stealing from the U.S. chip industry during an appearance on the U.S. channel The Joe Rogan Experience podcast – a point he also made in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July. In response to a question about supporting Taiwan against Chinese aggression, Trump said the island “has taken our chip business away from us.”

“I mean, how stupid are we,” Trump said. “They took away our entire chip business. They are extremely rich.”

Instead, Trump said, Taiwan should pay the US to protect the country.

“I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy,” Trump told Bloomberg. “Why? Why are we doing this?”

Trump is not a fan of the Chips Act

During his interview with Rogan, Trump also criticized the US CHIPS and Science Act, which was passed by the Biden administration in 2022 – in part to stimulate domestic advanced chip production.

“That chip deal is so bad, we spent billions of dollars on rich companies to come and borrow the money and build chip companies here, and they’re not going to give us the good companies anyway,” Trump said. said on the podcast, adding that the US should instead impose tariffs on chips entering the US

More than a dozen chipmakers, including US-based Intel (INTC+7.63%), Taiwan-based TSMC and South Korea-based SK Hynix are still waiting for billions of dollars in financing and loans from the US CHIPS Act to build semiconductor hubs in the US